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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
In the cross-partisan category, Harris is also crushing Howard Schultz in search interest.
bit.ly/2MCciwm
Harris is also the only Democrat with a material number of endorsements. She's probably the frontrunner at this point, folks. I don't mean she's the odds-on favorite, because there isn't one, but I think you can argue to rank her a half-tier above the other leading contenders.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Here's my analysis of how Amy Klobuchar could win the nomination: 53eig.ht/2DrU5O5
Also how she could lose it. But I think she's a pretty good candidate.
Everything about her campaign revolves around the Midwest. Electability is a big asset. So is proximity to Iowa. She's liable to run as a "beer track" candidate, drawing contrasts with more liberal "wine track" candidates from the coasts. (p.s.: Beto is on the "craft beer track")
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's sort of weird that this is framed as an unfortunate accident of timing. The stories are coming out because Klobuchar is running. If she were declaring in March instead of February, they'd have come in March instead of February too.
politico.com/amp/story/2019…
The allegations (of mistreatment of staff) are certainly newsworthy; they're also a long way from a Richter magnitude 8 type of scandal. So I'm also a little wary of the framing that Klobuchar's launch has been sidetracked or overshadowed.
I dunno. I guess you could study this systematically and someone probably should. It does seem like when women are running, the threshold is lower for controversies that are deemed to overshadow a campaign, e.g. Warren/DNA, Gillibrand/Franken, Klobuchar/staff (or Hillary/email).
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
FWIW, I do think Beto would have been better off declaring sooner (in January or even December). *And* I think he hasn't used the intervening time well. But as I've thought about it more (and done a little bit of talking to people) I'm less convinced it's a huge problem.
Most of the action so far has been in the leftmost half of the field from candidates on the coasts. But there's another group that's more moderate, usually Midwestern or Southern, who will heavily emphasize retail politics (i.e. Iowa). Not many in the race from that group yet.
There's also this weird thing where for years, there were too few left-wing voices in media and moderate/centrist Democratic perspectives were grossly overrepresented. Now maybe we've come full circle where media coverage tends to underestimate the number of moderate Democrats.
Read 3 tweets

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