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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
It's sort of weird that this is framed as an unfortunate accident of timing. The stories are coming out because Klobuchar is running. If she were declaring in March instead of February, they'd have come in March instead of February too.
politico.com/amp/story/2019…
The allegations (of mistreatment of staff) are certainly newsworthy; they're also a long way from a Richter magnitude 8 type of scandal. So I'm also a little wary of the framing that Klobuchar's launch has been sidetracked or overshadowed.
I dunno. I guess you could study this systematically and someone probably should. It does seem like when women are running, the threshold is lower for controversies that are deemed to overshadow a campaign, e.g. Warren/DNA, Gillibrand/Franken, Klobuchar/staff (or Hillary/email).
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
About 25 percent of Bernie's voters were #NeverHillary in 2016. Now they have a lot more choices. Can he win without them? (Spoiler: yes, but his coalition is likely to look different.) 53eig.ht/2DVDW3q
Of the states Sanders won last time, 8 were because of #NeverHillary voters. In the more conservative states in particular (e.g. Indiana and West Virginia) he may not replicate that success this time around.
Contrary to the stereotype, the #NeverHillary voters were largely *not* leftist voters who thought Clinton was too conservative. They were mostly moderate and conservative Democrats, or independents and Republicans who chose to vote in the Democratic primary.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If college basketball wants to save itself, it seems like you could design a system where players get drafted by NBA teams at age 18 but can take a "gap year" where they play in college for a year or two in and also get big payouts in the event of injury.
e.g. the Hawks draft R.J. Barrett out of high school. They can opt to delay his NBA debut for 1 year in exchange for paying him half his rookie-scale salary for that year. During the gap year, he can play in college, the G League, internationally, work with a trainer, whatever.
Maybe you can add 2nd, 3rd, etc. gap years too, but they'd require mutual agreement by the team and the player. Or maybe you automatically get a 2nd gap year for non-lottery picks. There are a lot details, but in the abstract it seems workable.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Feel like the conventional wisdom is tilted ever-so-slightly toward underrating the chance a moderate will win the Democratic primary just because not many of the moderates have declared yet, whereas the progressives have. (Yeah, I know the progressive/moderate line is blurry.)
I'm also pretty interested in Sherrod Brown, who could straddle the progressive/moderate line maybe better than anyone else.
TBH my views remain boringly similar to PredictIt. I'd be tempted to say Bernie is a little overrated but: (1) that fundraising is pretty impressive; (2) dynamics of a divided field could help him; (3) Warren isn't off to a great start. bit.ly/2S3Huqg
Read 3 tweets

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owen cyclops ❄️🧠
@WesternIdentity
stories like this come up in missing411 a lot, a kid disappears and a “bear” takes care of them, but bear experts say a bear would never actually do this. some kids also have stories of wolf or dog headed creatures taking care of them. very strange.
none of this is definitive obviously but lots of parallels with other missing 411 stories, for example often after the person goes missing extreme weather moves in (could be chance occurrence obviously)
also he was found half a mile from the place he went missing. gotta assume hundreds of adults and some professionals searched within a mile radius of the home. this is another common thing where the person will show up in a place that was obviously searched before.
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Andy Ngo
@MrAndyNgo
There needs to be a lawsuit for incompetence and negligence: 2 accused rapists, 2 suspected hit-and-run drivers (1 fatal), 1 with child porn. All were Saudi students in Oregon.

And all escaped back to Saudi Arabia. oregonlive.com/news/2019/01/g…
Just like in Oregon, it appears the Saudi Embassy in Canada helped another one of its citizens escape. A Saudi student facing charges of sexual assault & forcible confinement has fled the country. He said his trial would be unfair because of his race. aljazeera.com/news/2019/01/c…
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Thomas A. Fine 🇺🇸
@thomasafine
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This story (that I've been talking about all day) came up this morning, about an unidentified Russian hacker "Alexander Zh.", arrested in Bulgaria on a U.S. warrant from the Eastern District of New York.
Subsequent regional reporting has identified him as Alexander Zhukov, hacker nickname "Nastra".
24chasa.bg/novini/article…
He's being charged with fraudulently manipulating video viewing statistics, using a set of computers (perhaps a botnet). The actual crime is defrauding advertisers to the tune of seven million dollars. The time period charged is September 2014 to December 2016.
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Jeffrey Peterson🇺🇸
@realJeffreyP
As the #NXIVM case gains momentum in #Mexican media, a political blog in #Mexico, "indice politico," published this article a few days ago. In case you don't know Spanish, the headline says, "[frmr. Pres.] Carlos Salinas can have you assassinated." #NXIVM indicepolitico.com/carlos-salinas…
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Trevor Reese
@RealTrevorReese
On top of the other threads I have going for supposed 2020 candidates, Joe Kennedy, Kamala Harris, Joe Biden, and Deval Patrick so far, the DNC has announced that it will be holding the 2020 convention July 13th-16th. politi.co/2yhnw62 via @politico
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Read 11 tweets
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IMReturnsManager
@IMRiskManager
Weekly Spam Alert
This week it will the 'The Art of War' of Sun Tzu
Not directly related to Markets but I guess this classic will be useful.
1.Do big institutions let any1 know what they r doing in Markets?
Does dis quote of Art of War reminds u stealth short covering/silent accu
2. Though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated with long delays.
#timing in trade
The Art of War
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