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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Here's my analysis of how Amy Klobuchar could win the nomination: 53eig.ht/2DrU5O5
Also how she could lose it. But I think she's a pretty good candidate.
Everything about her campaign revolves around the Midwest. Electability is a big asset. So is proximity to Iowa. She's liable to run as a "beer track" candidate, drawing contrasts with more liberal "wine track" candidates from the coasts. (p.s.: Beto is on the "craft beer track")
Overall, it's a fairly linear path. The first step is the debates, where her campaign thinks she'll do well as a former prosecutor who can be funny, etc. The second step is Iowa. The third step is beating more liberal candidates perhaps by hoping voters see her as more electable.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
If [Candidate X] would increase the Democrats' chances of winning the presidency by say 2 percentage points, but increase the chance of winning **one Senate seat** by say 10 percent, Democrats should strongly prefer them to run for president, not Senate.
Especially since a strong presidential candidate would tend to produce coattails up and down the ballot that would help Democrats in literally every other race.
The only candidate for whom this discussion is really even worth having is for Sherrod Brown, who would literally cost the Democrats a Senate seat (although only for 2 years) if he became POTUS/VPOUTS. With everyone else, it's a rounding error.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
My solution to fix baseball: Ban relief pitchers. 53eig.ht/2Ewdoaz
OK, not literally ban relief pitchers. But limit teams to carrying 10 pitchers (starters + relievers) on the roster. This would potentially make a *lot* of difference in terms of curbing strikeout rates, and would also improve pace of play.
It's *way* too easy to throw at max++ effort if you only have to pitch 1 inning every 2nd or 3rd day. Mediocre ex-starters get massive boosts to their K rate and FB velocity when this way. Baseball has to make it harder to use the parade of 98-mph, 2-pitch, 1-inning relievers.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
No one seems to buy our forecast that for several weeks has shown the Lakers as underdogs to make the playoffs. I've been skeptical too since I've been burned by LeBron like 23 times. But man, they just lost by double digits to a Pelicans team without AD. 53eig.ht/2WgjnqT
On July 1, the Lakers had LeBron, *another* max contract spot, several very promising young players, and basically no bad contracts. Somehow, they wound up with no clearly above-average players other than LeBron. It's *really hard* to make so little of such a good situation.
Lakers are now 3-7 and have been outscored by 11 points per game (!) since the Anthony Davis trade demand.
Read 3 tweets

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Jeremy Konyndyk
@JeremyKonyndyk
Good overview here of the aid standoff that is brewing in Venezuela.

Both regime and opposition are trying to instrumentalize foreign aid for their own political advantage...so badly needed aid is not getting in.

So - what are the options?
Historically, there are three basic approaches available: depoliticize and seek consent; confront and compel; or muddle through the middle.
*Depoliticize and seek consent* is the standard humanitarian approach. This would mean routing aid through neutral multilateral means (e.g. UN, Red Cross)...rather than flying it in on military planes and framing its intent as regime change.
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Bellingcat
@bellingcat
We've just published a piece on how we identified the Skripal "third man" as GRU officer Denis Sergeev. A thread on how we came to this conclusion:
bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-eu…
The first step was the terrific work of @fontanka_news, who were the first to identify "Sergey Fedotov" as the Skripal third man. We reviewed the same materials they had with the 2 March 2018 flight records surrounding "Sergey Fedotov" from Moscow to London.
@fontanka_news The passport number of "Fedotov" was just a couple of digits off from those of Skripal suspects "Boshirov" and "Petrov", showing that he got his cover identity at the same time from the GRU.
fontanka.ru/2018/10/10/124/
Read 25 tweets
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Cowboys Stats & Graphics
@CowboysStats
Think most of these "with-or-without X Player" breakdowns, particularly on defense, are not particularly meaningful.
Like I haven't even looked it up yet and have barely followed the Rams since Week 3 or so but I think it's a pretty good guess that Talib's absence coincided with them playing some really good quarterbacks
Yeah, so in games in which Talib played, the opposing offenses were Raiders, Cardinals (twice), Chargers (really good!), Lions, Bears, Eagles, 49ers.

When Talib was out, opposing passers were Russell Wilson (x2), Drew Brees, Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and a few others. So.
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DawsonSField
@DawsonSField
Good thread by @Knowita47918362 discussing how Comey's 2016 actions caused Democrats to demand an IG investigation & his justifications lead to firings or resignations of most of the senior FBI & DOJ staff involved in Hillary & Trump's cases. Plus his meeting memos cleared Trump
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@Knowita47918362 Those memos also document that individuals in the federal government were using their authority to spy on the White House. Intercept secure White House phones, bug the Situation Room, & wiretap the President's private dining room where Trump & Comey met to discuss the Russia case
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Alex Cobham
@alexcobham
Here's a critique of the UK database entries of our Financial Secrecy Index, from a lawyer at Clifford Chance - one of the world's ten biggest law firms (per Wikipedia). And what follows is a response on the points raised.
To begin, we really value expert feedback. We had a nearly two-year review process before the Jan.2018 release, which we were delighted to find brought in a great many stakeholders, including experts, users and subject jurisdiction policymakers..
You can find more information about the methodology and review, including a statistical analysis by the European Commission's index experts, here: financialsecrecyindex.com/introduction/m…
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