Thread by @ilynem

I was watching the #RubbinMinds debate and @ebuka asked a question on Atiku's policies being for the rich/middle class. I was hoping the brilliant @YarKafanchan and @DemolaRewaju would address this extensively but I guess there was no time to. Here's my feeble attempt.
Thread.

I remember watching election night on CNN between Donald Trump and Clinton with my dad. We were up through the night watching Wolf and Co. Analyze the results as they came in. I liked Trump but wanted Hilary to win. I liked Trump because I had always admired him before

The whole presidency drama started. His show "The apprentice" which later became "Celebrity Apprentice" was one I had always loved. But I felt he would be a joke of a president and also believed he had absolutely no chance of winning. Imagine my shock when he won!

But something else happened immediately Trump won. The stock market started to rise. I wondered why. He hadn't been sworn in yet. No policies yet. But the stock market was rising. Why? The simple answer is "Signal"

Investors respond to signals and whether it was Trump's favourable campaign promises that made this so is still up for debate.
Let's come home. When news broke that GEJ had called to concede to Buhari in 2015, the stock market in Nigeria started to rise. Why? Signal.

Investors know that elections in Nigeria can lead to a huge crises that can affect their investments and so during periods of elections many of them start pulling out. Immediately they sense that elections are over and there is no crises, they start coming back in.

That was a positive start for Buhari. And then he started to send the wrong signals again by not appointing ministers. Foreign Portfolio Investors started to pull out, dollars started to rise due to pressure, and when asked why he had not appointed minister...

What did baba say? Ministers are there to make noise! What?????? Not minding what it's doing to our stock market and exchange rate? Now let me tell you why the exchange rate is so important. As an economy that imports massively, general prises are determined by the exchange rate.

The importer of electronics at alaba now buys dollars with more Naira than he did in 2014. You think he will sell for the same price? No. This goes for all the products we import in Nigeria. That's why prices are rising. Atiku knows this. Hence his policy on attracting FDI.

FDI brings more dollars into the country. Sending the right signals that you are pro business means foreign portfolio investors will trust you and invest in our stock market. This brings more dollars into the country. You know what else this does?

It reduces the pressure on dollars, strengthens the naira against the dollars and hence makes importing relatively cheaper. what else does FDI do? Trickle down effect! There is a phenomenon called "Trickle down Economics." There are debates whether this works in reality or not

and this was Trump's argument when he wanted to cut taxes. The democrats argued that Trump wanted to enrich his friends (sounds familiar?) by cutting their taxes. But here's the trick. When taxes are cut, producers have more profit to expand, and so they employ more

And guess what? Jobs has been one of Trumps biggest successes. Last year there was an average of 200 thousand added Jobs each month. Just in January, 304,000 new jobs were added. Whether this was due to Trump's tax cuts is still up for debate.

This is why when Atiku, during the program "The Candidates" advocated for a tax cut to free up profits for expansion and then tax the workers, I felt it was a brilliant plan. I have been trying to find a flaw in this plan but my BSc. brain has not been able to.

Now what does FDI and FPI do? Apart from easing the pressure on dollars, it creates a multiplier effect. let's take a tomato paste company for instance. Apart from the fact they will need a new building (income for cement producers, builders, architects, etc)

there will also be income for those down the value chain. The tomato farmer will have a new market and make more money. This company will need to employ people and those who will be jobless after Npower can get employed.

I learnt something from reading Economics. Government has no business creating direct jobs. their job is to set an enabling environment (be the oil in the wheel and not the wheel) for businesses to thrive. This reason is simple. a competitive private sector breeds

efficiency. This is why I will always speak up against programs like NPower. It is simplistic and unsustainable and in the long run Npower beneficiaries will be back on the streets job hunting. billions that would have been better put into infrastructure wasted.

School feeding program, another monumental waste. They claim to create a market for local farmers but do you honestly see this program going on in say 2030? wouldn't it be better to put this into infrastructure?

This will not just make cost of production cheaper (farmers will make more profit) but will bring in investments (local and foreign) which will be a ready market for our primary sector. Is this not better and more sustainable? Buhari is known as anti business.

Apart from his socialistic beliefs (giving out handouts) he sends the wrong signals to investors with his impunity and dictatorial habits. that's why the former UK secretary warned investors to stay off Nigeria. Atiku on the other hand is sending the right signals with

his private sector driven policies. Another four years for buhari spells doom for this country in terms of jobs and poverty will keep rising.

END.

PS: apologies if this thread looks disjointed. I was early for work and just kept writing as it came into my head.

there are a lot I didn't even touch. cost of production, trade-off between unemployment and inflation, etc. but maybe next time.

#AtikuWillWin

I just saw this morning. Here is proof that Since Buhari came to power, the stock market has dropped consistently.

https://twitter.com/PaulWallace123/status/1094900956716826624