Thread by @cbkwgl

I don't know why Indian government came up with this policy, but the reality is, after scrapping of the 20% duty on Pakistani cement around 2007, Pakistani cement turned out to be 10-15% cheaper than Indian cement.

A total annual trade of around 70-80 billion USD is the actual business being done, with six or seven players in the game.

Volumes are also good. Notice two things.
1. Modi's diplomatic onslaught and Chabahar means Afghanistan buying less cement from India.
2. Heavy spend on infra in India means more exports to India.

Who are the players? While Best way, Lucky and DG Khan are the biggest players, Askari Cements and Fauji Cements, run by Pakistani Army have a combined installed capacity of 10% of total country's installed capacity.

And the website of Askari confirms that it exports cement to India.

Very few know that Pakistani Army runs a vast business empire of 50+ companies in fields ranging from cement to horse stables.
dawn.com/news/1272211

As a consequence of the terrorist attack at Pulwama by a Pakistan based terrorist group Jaish-e-Muhammad (Army of Muhammad), India increased the tariff from 200% literally crippling the cement exports to India. Stock is stuck on the roads - in Dubai, in Sri Lanka and everywhere.

And what is Pakistan's response? A desperate hope that @narendramodi will not be reelected again.

@narendramodi There are two aspects of the issue here.
1. Addressing non-reciprocation of MFN status and retaliation for the terrorist attacks
2. Giving business to Pakistani Army.

@narendramodi How exactly is Pakistani Army playing here? By not granting India MFN status and banning Indian finished produce like cars and textiles(again, the army has massive business interests there). This single aspect should have bee enough for India not to give MFN status, first of all

@narendramodi Besides, where exactly is Pakistan bleeding? The most unexpected product - cotton 😂😂 Increasing cost of cement is one thing and not able to buy new clothes is another. That's going to be something to watch seriously.

@narendramodi So, keep the fingers crossed. Let's see how Indian govt will play this game - is it going to be economic strangulation or economic anarchy(already, tomato prices shot up to RS 180 after Indian exporters decided to boycott Pakistani market) or military whiplash.

Continuing. I really don't understand what sort of madness drives Pakistan. Is it all about Pakistan being an army with a country and not a country with an army, meaning let the country go to dogs, army will enjoy a cozy and luxurious life, responsible to none?

This is the drought scenario in Pakistan. Let's consider their megalomaniac map of including Kashmir as well(which they can never acquire on ground). This is in spite of the fact that India is releasing way more water than what they are supposed to.

What if India claims what is legally it's own? We will see the whole country in dark brown then, what exactly should Pakistan's priority be? Fighting an undefeatable country like India or sort their domestic problems?

As if this is not sufficient, they haven't given India MFN status. What did they achieve by that, except forcing India to roll back the status it gave to Pakistan? Look at their exports to India. Crude oil, cement and dates. Utter chaos in all three sectors.

98% of Pakistani dry dates import is to India. India consumes 20% of total their total date produce. Today, the trucks are sitting on the roads, clueless what to do. Same with cement. 30% of exports and 4% of produce. Now, there'll be shutdown of factories to run down the stocks.

Petroleum, I guess, in an area where everyone exports petroleum, will anyone look at the trickle Pakistan produces? Add to that fruits and vegetables which have very less shelf life.

And now imports from India. Cotton, tomatoes, tyres and seeds for farming. We are already seeing the impact of not having tomatoes. From an average of 100 rupees/kilo, the cost shot up to 180 rupees in a day and 300 rupees by the next day.

As to cotton. 30% of Pakistan's total global exports deal with finished cotton products. And if India blocks cotton, what's going to be the impact on their overall crop market?

Synopsis,
1. Dates, Fruits, Tomatoes, Tyres - High nuisance value. Impacted - Common public and small farmers.
2. Cotton, Cement - Crash of Industry and Job Loss
3. Petroleum - destruction of market.
And this is just a sampling. There are other areas like gypsum or rock salt.

Along with this, there are two other things.
1. India wrote/is writing to ICC to ban Pakistan from World Cup. If Pakistan is removed, it's another $150 million annual loss. And if ICC rejects and BCCI refuses to participate in the world cup, ICC will itself become bankrupt.

2. An angry India is thinking of escalating the matters with Pakistan militarily. For a country heavily in debt and on bailouts, it's really taxing to shift military paraphernalia and soldiers from one part of the country to another.

As if India not sufficient, Pakistan provoked all three neighbours at the same time.
Now, all of this for what? For an army to ruin a country? For another province when their country is on the brink on collapse and is staring at a civil war and a public rebellion? To score some

more points at a country far more powerful than them and with zero chance to overcome, come what may? Four times they were thrashed badly by India. What will happen if India is attacked again? Best case, economic ruin. Worst case, territorial dismemberment. Is it really worth it?

The best course of action for Pakistan now is to permanently promise to stop picking fights with India and other neighbours. That means disbanding it's military which is of zero use to anyone, destroy all it's weapons, publicly apologising to all those whom it

targeted - neighbours & provinces & facilitate for happy coexistence. Does Pakistan have the heart & guts to do what is needed for the benefit of it's own people who are starving & are about to rebel against the rulers? It's upto Pakistan to decide what it wants - ruin or utopia.