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Zillow laying out a 3-5 year goal of buying 60,000 homes per year and generating $20B in revenue.
In the core IMT biz, think they can do $600M in EBITDA, up from $245M.
In the core IMT biz, think they can do $600M in EBITDA, up from $245M.
In August, Spencer laid out some napkin math, using a "mere" 10,000 homes/mo as his example and estimating a 75% mortgage attach rate. Not clear if that was off the cuff, but clearly medium term aspirations dialed back.
Now, when I said that buying 120,000 homes a year seemed like a massive logistical operation, @rabois who is Chairman of Opendoor replied they will do a reasonable fraction of that in 2019, so maybe Zillow's goals not so crazy
I don't know how big Offerpad is these days, but it seems like iBuyers will collectively approach mid single digit share of existing home sales within five years according to their individual biz plans.
In September, MS estimated 5% share for iBuyers by 2030. With Zillow getting to 2% and Opendoor at 1.5%. Seems like the aspirations for both are well ahead of that.
Interestingly, MS assumed $20B Homes revs for Zillow in 2024, so the outside date of Zillow guidance, and valued the iBuying operation at ... $1.5B.
