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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
Looking at new home sales, on a seasonally adjusted basis, 3 of 4 regions up y/y in Dec. Entirety of the decline is the West. Given South is > 50% of sales, big improvement there sticks out, Dec was 2nd highest of the year. Also revised nums speak to builders saying Dec > Nov.
Love this chart from @calculatedrisk of non seasonally adjusted new home sales by month. Shows how bonkers 2005 was. But can 2018 started > 2017, then fell to down y/y in 2H. And can see Dec > Nov.
@calculatedrisk Another great chart from @calculatedrisk showing 2018 vs 2017 in new home sales SAAR by month
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
Weather as an excuse is the last refuge of a scoundrel, but I do not think there is much signal in the housing starts decline. The West was down 33%, due to one of the wettest months in history.
usatoday.com/story/news/nat…
google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j…
Read 3 tweets
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
Allowing content from multiple services to be consumed in a single app is a nice step in removing an annoying friction. Otherwise I think this was a demonstration that truly changing the video business is hard, no matter how much money you have or how big your installed base.
I think the point I, and many other Netflix skeptics misunderstood, and that @ballmatthew helped me grasp, was that Netflix knew it had to go massive or go home to truly change the game in video. Hastings saw that it was win or die, and behaved as such.
Apple has all the resources in the world. If they wanted they could sign every producer to long term output deals, bid up every piece of syndicated content, go absolutely freaking massive. But why? It's not existential for them like it was for Netflix.
Read 4 tweets
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modest proposal
@modestproposal1
Moffett did fantastic research on Verizon's fixed wireless. Using public records from Sacramento, they identified the location of VZ's small cells. Then using VZ's website, they manually input 45K (!) addresses to check to see if service was available or currently subscribed.
First, the most important point about overbuilding in general:

"One of the touchstones of telecommunications is that overbuilding wired networks almost never works"
Now the actual results. Only 6% of addresses were eligible to receive fixed wireless service, with some zip codes as high as 18%. Of those eligible addresses, only 3% had taken service, although this is arguably less meaningful at this point than the eligibility.
Read 6 tweets

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