Thread by @LyleGreg

#cdnpoli @InnovativeRG New federal politics release online. Lots to share. You can check out the deck for yourself here hubs.ly/H0gTR-H0. This thread covers the highlights.

First, while overall we see only marginal national changes in the vote, there are significant regional changes. The most significant in terms of seats are Liberals up in Quebec but down in BC and the Atlantic. Also down in AB but few seats at risk. Marginally down in Ontario.

Second, @justintrudeau has seen negatives grow and favs drop. While Trudeau still leads Scheer on best PM by 8 points. On traits, Trudeau is down:
•-9 points on strong leader and competent,
•-6 points on cares about people like me,
•-4 points on stand up for middle class.

Third, attitudes on SNC Lavalin and @puglass are strongly coloured by partisanship. Conservatives always give government and PM the most negative scores, Liberals are most positive, everyone else in between but more negative than positive.

Fourth, while most Canadians aware of the SNC Lavalin issue, only 26% following closely. Among those aware of the issue, a majority (53%) feel less favourable towards the Liberals. 44% at least very concerned about the issue of political interference with prosecutors.

Fifth, a majority (56%) say @puglass did a good job. Ironically Conservatives most likely to say so, Liberals among least likely. 44% say PM treated JWR. More Liberals say fairly than unfairly. All other groups more likely to say unfairly. Twice as many believe JWR over PM

Sixth, among beliefs tested, the most popular a statement that the PM’s actions prove big business gets special access. Good news for the government, the next most popular statement is that @puglass should have gone to directly to PM with concerns.

Seventh, there is a BC angle. The Lib lead in BC dropped from 8 points over the CPC to just 3 points. NDP gained the most. A strong plurality agree that shuffling @pulass from Justice removed a strong voice for BC to serve the PM’s own interest. A majority of BCers agree.

Eighth, there is a strong plurality who agree that PM’s actions show Quebec gets special preference. There is less agreement that his actions show the PM isn’t really committed to advancing change for women or indigenous people.

Ninth, many people are ambivalent about the govt. Agreement on “Time for a change” is at 55% which is high for Trudeau but reasonably low for an incumbent government. Agreement on our “lesser of evils” statement is also relatively low at 38%.

Ten, looking ahead to the Liberal campaign, more people want a federal government to stand up against Ford and Kenny than are afraid of a CPC government.