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Aaron Stein
@aaronstein1
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
The S-400 - F-35 issue has been a slow burn since December 2016. The issue is boiling over now because the two sides are on the last stretch of highway, barreling towards catastrophe and in need of an off ramp, ie a way to cancel the deal w/ Russia

aa.com.tr/en/turkey/turk…
The US offer of NASAMS off-the-shelf, rapid delivery of Patriot, and an openness to dialogue on co-prod/co-dev for Patriot makes sense. Turks dont wants NASAMS. Fine. But what is needed is time and we are running out — and fast. July 2019 is around the corner.
First tweet in this thread should read December 2017, not 2016
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Aaron Stein
@aaronstein1
Norway is a very useful case study. Were at Tanf, commiserate to D-IS mandate. Once the D-IS mandate ended and the mission morphed to blocking an Iranian land bridge, Norway withdrew b/c there was no longer a legal mandate. As US ask Euros for troops, the D-IS mandate matters
So as the US celebrates the Turmp letter to Congress that emphasizes Iran, it actually makes the demarche to European states harder for them to fulfill because the mandate is so nebulous. Would be wise to focus only on IS and never, ever mention Iran. The Norway precedent matters
Further, in the concurrent talks with the Turks, Ankara has not changed its position: Turkey must control the safe zone through a heavy TSO presence backed by TSK. This is at odds with the US and European position. A Turkish run safe zone is about the SDF, not D-IS.
Read 4 tweets
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Aaron Stein
@aaronstein1
200 troops is too small to advise, assist, accompany SDF units, so US forces won’t be “touching” their Kurdish/Arab partners in this current iteration of the plan. The idea, of course, is for British and French troops to monitor and report on a proposed safe zone
This appears to have come from bottom up Congressional pressure, so it will to be left to DoD to come up with the manning requirements for a 100+100 (NE and Tanf) force in Syria. Presumably, and per what is being discussed with Ankara, the idea is for the USAF to remain
The USAF would then be tasked with denying access to outsiders, ie the Russians/regime/Iranians, in ways similar to what became policy after the Su-22 shootdown in Tabqa and the rather tense resolution of Russian objections to the river as the demarcation line
Read 8 tweets
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Aaron Stein
@aaronstein1
Of course the US-Turkey Patriot talks haven’t reached the stage of discussion about coproduction. This is a totally disingenuous argument. In both the pre-2015 letter of agreement and the current, post-2018 LOA the call is for the first 2 units to be off the self
The follow-on units, per Turkish timeline requests (which are sped up for the post-2018 LOA), co-production/development will begin with the third Patriot unit. It is w/in this context that industry-led co-prod/dev talks would take place.
Post-2015 LOA and before the 2018 LOA, the US offer to Turkey included NASAMS as a stop-gap before Patriot delivery, but Ankara indicated it was not interested in NASAMS.

W/ 2018 LOA, intent is to reach agreement (including for the S-400 cancelation). This is the state of play
Read 4 tweets

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