Thread by @OnWithLogic

1) I want to preface this thread by saying that if "we are the news now" then it means finding the truth and establishing fact regardless of whether it's convenient or not.

I've been working on some math regarding the 0 deltas, and I wanted to share those results. #QAnon

2) An anon posted a calculation on the boards a few days ago, I saved it off to check the math, but hadn't gotten around to it. Then it appeared here via @DavidBlette, and along with @martingeddes & @diveinordie we started to check the calculation and see if it was right. #QAnon

3) Below is the math that was distributed on the boards, you can see a binomial distribution was used.

I think this is incorrect. I have solved for this a different way, please read on. #QAnon

4) A binomial distribution breaks down, I was unable to make it work.

The solution is more complicated. A Poisson-distribution, which accounts for time, is required. Binomials make it (sort of) a once a day thing. #QAnon

Dorks can read more here: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poisson_d…

5) Note, I needed to get a bit of help with this, statistics and probability is not my strongest thing, so after some consultation, here's the solution which I believe is accurate, and I would hope others may tear down and inspect. #QAnon

6) I'm going to spoiler at this point so those that don't care about math can peel away.

Turns out the number of 0 deltas maps directly within what is most probable.

We have 17 0 deltas as now (maybe 18). 19 is the tip of the curve. This is most likely not an anomaly. #QAnon

7) In looking at the variables, this means that there should be an expected number of 0 deltas since Q started posting. And that number is 19. This shows it's most likely that there will have been approx 19 of them by now. #QAnon

8) That means a single 0 delta is very unlikely & so are 40 of them.

Same as a 100 coin tosses. 1 heads and 99 tails is very unlikely, they all end up around 50 of each.

The peak likelihood of 0 deltas rest between 16 and 22. The number we have fits right within that. #QAnon

9) Ok so the folks that don't want to get math geeky should run :)

Let me describe my variables and methodology.

First of all I found the number of Q posts and POTUS tweets since OCT 28, 2017. #QAnon

POTUS: 4756
Q: 2983

10) Next, I needed the number of minutes since Q started posting, which is approximately 710,000.

So here we use the Poisson-distribution.

We need a rate of events. So we divide POTUS tweets by 710,000 and Q posts by 710,000.

11) That gives us .006699 and .004201 respectively as the rate of events.

Here some calculus was necessary.

This turns into a density function seeking the likelihood that Q posts and afterwards POTUS tweets within 1 minute.

12) This value eventually is derived as .006626 as the probability of Q tweeting within 1 minute before POTUS, basically this means Q has a 7 in 1,000 chance of hitting the 0 delta.

13) In the end, the distribution works within normal probability because of the length of the timespan, 710,000 minutes. In essence, there are a lot of chances of hitting.

14) Interestingly, the 3 instances of 0 time deltas in one day is significant. The chances of that happening are only 3 in 1000. Quite a feat.

15) If anyone is interested in re -running this in the future, or checking the math, I have the Python script which will run the probabilities with whatever variables you wish, just DM me. You'll need NumPy. #QAnon

16) So back to the first post, if we're the news now, we have to be absolutely factual because the level of scrutiny we will soon be facing is going to be immense.

17) In this 0 deltas instance, the 0 deltas should actually be expected, and so if others can verify the math here, it's not a Q proof and we shouldn't use it to convince others. We have more than enough other proofs from which to choose 😋 #QAnon