Thread by @BenShepherdEcon

1. An interesting thing about #services trade in the context of #Brexit is that we need to remember that services imports directly create jobs. Economists always like imports, but public debate focuses on jobs coming from exports. #Services are different. Let me explain why.

2. Under the GATS, when a foreign services company establishes a subsidiary in the UK and sells services to locals, that's an import of services for the UK under #Mode3. But to sell services to locals, the business needs to employ locals. So imports directly create jobs in the UK

3. Eurostat data shows that around 2.6 million service sector employees in the UK get their paychecks from foreign controlled companies. It's hard to get a break down of exactly how much of that is European, but it's far to assume that it's substantial.

4. Based on our work for NI bit.ly/2C4dTau, we know that UK services trade policy would be much more restrictive under no deal or CETA than at present, unless there is substantial MFN liberalization. #Mode3 restrictions post-Brexit would put some of those jobs at risk.