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Most probable outcome of European Council (21st to 22nd March) is an agreed extension to Article 50 (perhaps to 22nd May, or to end of June). This short extension may make more difference than is often suggested, as to whether decisions are made (not deferred again) in April-June
Must be mutual. If the EU wants the withdrawal agreement to pass, the logical strategy is to be very open to a 2-3 month extension (with v.few conditions) while setting out clear conditions on any further extension (including that an extended extension has to be 12-18 months).
The Opposition (if committed to preventing No Deal by July) would need to either support a longer delay, or to offer terms for support/acquiescence to Withdrawal Agreement.
After one delay, primary binary would become Long Delay vs this Deal (in some form). If No Deal is not achieved on March 29th, chances of leaving without a deal by June/July diminish (unless Cons unite around no deal (???) Or opposition parties decide to stop opposing it)
Possible that Deal v Delay2 ends in:
* Deal (WA with backstop)
+ some changes to PD (but hard/soft ambiguity)
+ more domestic oversight/parliamentary process for new negotiation phase.
* PM departs (summer)
* broad expectation of Autumn/Spring GE (includes harden/soften/return)
* Deal (WA with backstop)
+ some changes to PD (but hard/soft ambiguity)
+ more domestic oversight/parliamentary process for new negotiation phase.
* PM departs (summer)
* broad expectation of Autumn/Spring GE (includes harden/soften/return)
Alternative outcome is Long Delay (12-21 months).
- maybe for referendum (though still looks short)
- or because replace transition/backstop with membership during phase 2 gets unusually broad coalition, inc on right.
Seems less likely to me. (could well end in 2021 referendum)
- maybe for referendum (though still looks short)
- or because replace transition/backstop with membership during phase 2 gets unusually broad coalition, inc on right.
Seems less likely to me. (could well end in 2021 referendum)
I am not sure how the No Deal coalition - if they do lose 29th March - could engineer WTO Brexit by July.
- Certainly not by design
- While it could happen by accident, it is difficult to see why the March Extend/Delay coalition would break-up & so acquiesce to No Deal in July.
- Certainly not by design
- While it could happen by accident, it is difficult to see why the March Extend/Delay coalition would break-up & so acquiesce to No Deal in July.
So No Deal's best shot is March 29th: that everything goes wrong on March 20th - 22nd in heated EU-UK breakdown (or that EU takes No Deal risk by setting extension conditions that UK refuses). But I do not see UK govt choosing No Deal that week.
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