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The argument that Democrats have a high likelihood* of a contested convention is quite simple and straightforward, and I don't find the rebuttals to it very convincing at all.
* "High" doesn't necessarily mean >50%.
* "High" doesn't necessarily mean >50%.
1a. There are a ton of candidates.
1b. The number of candidates is predictive of what share of the vote the top candidates receive.
2. Democratic rules—in contrast the past—are set up such that unless someone gets close to 50% of the *vote*, they can't win on the first ballot.
1b. The number of candidates is predictive of what share of the vote the top candidates receive.
2. Democratic rules—in contrast the past—are set up such that unless someone gets close to 50% of the *vote*, they can't win on the first ballot.
