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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
It seems like when people imply that the Mueller Report won't mean "expectations", that really has 4 distinct causes, which are fairly important to distinguish—
1. Excessive hope/excitement from certain Democrats that Mueller would bring Trump down
2. Incautious reporting & false scoops
3. A lot of bad stuff getting normalized just because the investigation has gone on for so long
4. Deliberate goalpost-shifting by the WH and others
These causes aren't in any particular order and I don't know what order I'd put them in. All of them seem indisputably relevant. It strikes me as funny though that a lot of people who complain about 1 & 2 are extremely guilty of 4 (goalpost-shifting). Undoubtedly the reverse too.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
The Mueller Report hasn't been a game changer for Trump. At least not his approval ratings, anyway.
fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-e…
And, yeah, part of the reason it hasn't been a game changer is because no one has seen it yet (DiD yOu ReAd ThE sToRy?).
Kind of a lot going on here. On the one hand, it takes a lot to move Trump's numbers. On the other hand, the Muller report itself hasn’t been released, and from what they know about it the public thinks it's consistent with their priors. Also, they don't care about Russia much.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's been a few more days and Trump is now at...42.0% approval in our average. Not really much (if any) movement post Barr Memo.
The lack of moment in Trump's approval rating lines up with the fact that the public didn't think the Barr Memo was a game changer. I've said this before, but it seems like the public was smarter than the media about putting the memo into context.
By context I mean:
—Other than highly partisan Dems, who have other reasons to dislike Trump, the public didn't expect a smoking gun
—Nobody has seen the Mueller Report itself
—Even in the Barr Memo, the news isn't all good for Trump, e.g. he's not exonerated of obstruction
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's sort of amazing how many stupid, unforced errors the White House makes, a lot of which seem almost contemptuous toward people outside of Trump's base, which is not large enough to get him reelected by itself.
Well, at least Trump is smarter about politics than DeVos:
This is from the **Deputy Director of Communications** for Trump's 2020 campaign and really goes to what I was saying about the WH having contempt for people outside of the Trump base.
Read 3 tweets

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Elisa For Trump
@ElisaMichaels
1/ As with the Election, SOMEONE OVERPLAYED THEIR HAND . SOMEone with private access to inside information told the “in crowd,” they were going to win. Assured them they had this one in the bag. The Mueller Report (w/ Sekulow & Giuliani )reported complete vindication: after 40
2/ FOIA LAWSUITS, 19 lawyers, 2800 sub-trial attorney’s, 230 committee records, 500 witnesses, unknown numbers of pen registers (registers of who called whom) “no servers were destroyed, phone records destroyed: no collusion, no conspiracy, nothing INDICTABLE.”
3/ #Mueller ‘s offices will finally be closed. Per @TomFitton “Congress can still impeach Obama,” & Hillary could be brought upon charges. Nadler & Mad Max confirm their harassment will continue. (Shhh. Hari Kari is an empty threat these days.)
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Ed Overbeek
@EdOverbeek
People keep saying the Mueller report does X or says Y.

Folks, the Mueller report isn’t even out.

All we have is a bullshit letter from Trump’s partisan hack AG.
.@emptywheel on why Barr’s letter is bullshit
emptywheel.net/2019/03/24/how…
@emptywheel .@joshtpm on Barr’s history as a partisan hack (but of course he is one, or Trump never would’ve picked him)
talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/can-we-…
Read 5 tweets
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Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
Tucked away in this article is a highly significant revelation (no doubt made inadvertently) by two anonymous DOJ officials. 1/10 tinyurl.com/y696fjj7
I have argued for a long time that the question to ask about when the MUELLER REPORT will be submitted and released is not: “When will Mueller have ALL the evidence he could obtain?” 2/10
The appropriate question is: “When will #Mueller have ENOUGH evidence?”--that is, enough evidence for Congress to proceed with impeaching Trump and removing him from office and indicting people for campaign collusion. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
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Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
Here’s another reason to think that the #MUELLER REPORT is going to be devastating for Trump. 1/10
So far no member of Trump’s family has been indicted, including Don Jr., even though Don Jr (according to all reliable reporting) lied his *** off behind closed doors in Congressional hearings. 2/10
And Don Jr. hasn’t been questioned by Team Mueller, which legal experts say is ominous for him, as it is a sign he is a target. 3/10
Read 10 tweets
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Lola Netty
@TXTrumpette89
What happened to the #Mueller hype?
What happened to the Mueller will take down #POTUS threats [@JohnBrennan]?
Was MUELLER the 'insurance' policy aka #BLOCKADE designed to limit/restrict POTUS' ability to enforce the law?
[#TRAITORS]
"complexities, opaqueness & length of counterintel investigations, I’d be surprised if #Mueller was able to uncover breadth of this #conspiracy. More digging will have to be done. But there’ll be crimes. & we better get to see them://t.co/seYfCs0d6q
"A concise #Mueller report would mark the end of the beginning, not the beginning of the end, argues @neal_katyal"

#ratsrunning #wearethenewsnoKlHaaEz80A
Read 13 tweets
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Thomas Wood 🌊
@twoodiac
As I’ve opined before:

Qn: When will #Mueller issue his report(s)?

Answer: As soon as he has a case strong enough to take down Trump.

It’s all about Trump at this point. 1/3
So my opinion, FWIW: If Mueller submits a report soon, that can only be good news. Two possibilities:

1) It could be an obstruction of justice report only--but still devastating for Trump politically. (A report documenting conspiracy would come later.) 2/3
2) But if Mueller submits a report soon that includes conspiracy, that would mean he has an airtight case now for impeachment. After the Mueller report, others in the DOJ and FBI would follow through on all the messy details--a mopping up operation that could take years. 3/3
Read 3 tweets

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