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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 4 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Did this pretty quickly so don't take as gospel, but it looks to me like 10 candidates have already qualified for the debates under the DNC's *polls* criteria: Biden, Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke, Warren, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro, Gillibrand, Buttigieg.
Gabbard, Inslee, Hickenlooper and Brown (if he were to resurrect his bid for some reason) already have 2 of the 3 polls they need. The fundraising threshold is probably the *easier* way to qualify (65K donors) but polls is pretty easy too. bit.ly/2UN80FJ
Yang claims he's met the donor threshold, and we have no reason to doubt him. (Although, it will be a while before the DNC officially verifies anything.)

We are not sure that any other candidates that *didn't* meet the polling threshold *have* met the donor one—but are checking.
Jay Inslee has also qualified for the debates based on this morning's Fox News poll. That makes 12 qualified candidates: Biden, Sanders, Harris, O'Rourke, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro, Gillibrand, Buttigieg, Inslee (polls), Yang (fundraising).
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's been a few more days and Trump is now at...42.0% approval in our average. Not really much (if any) movement post Barr Memo.
The lack of moment in Trump's approval rating lines up with the fact that the public didn't think the Barr Memo was a game changer. I've said this before, but it seems like the public was smarter than the media about putting the memo into context.
By context I mean:
—Other than highly partisan Dems, who have other reasons to dislike Trump, the public didn't expect a smoking gun
—Nobody has seen the Mueller Report itself
—Even in the Barr Memo, the news isn't all good for Trump, e.g. he's not exonerated of obstruction
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
It's sort of amazing how many stupid, unforced errors the White House makes, a lot of which seem almost contemptuous toward people outside of Trump's base, which is not large enough to get him reelected by itself.
Well, at least Trump is smarter about politics than DeVos:
This is from the **Deputy Director of Communications** for Trump's 2020 campaign and really goes to what I was saying about the WH having contempt for people outside of the Trump base.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
A general theme in this polling is that the public hasn't had their priors shifted much by the Barr Memo, although that could reflect any of 3 or 4 phenomena:
1—The public's priors were fairly accurate to begin with; they didn't expect a smoking gun
2—Everyone's super partisan so LOL nothing matters
3—The public's hedging until the full Mueller Report is released
3b—(and it may not take the Report as the final word on collusion anyway)
Obviously these aren't mutually exclusive and all of them are likely in play to some degree. Overall, though, I'd dare to suggest the public has had a fairly measured and rational reaction to the Barr Memo and how much new information it provided vis-à-vis what was known before.
Read 3 tweets

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Doug Johnson Hatlem
@djjohnso
1/4 Morning Consult polled 2284 people of color regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary in January

RESULTS ALL POC
Biden 21.0%
Sanders 15.7
Harris 5.3
O'Rourke 5.0
Warren 3.4
Booker 2.8
Other* 18.0
Don't Know/No Opinion 28.8

*No other candidate except HRC 2.5% or greater
2/4 Morning Consult polled 1011 African Americans regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary in January

RESULTS BLACK RESPONDENTS
Biden 29.1%
Sanders 13.0
Harris 6.7
O'Rourke 4.0
Booker 3.9
Warren 3.0
Other 16.4
Don't Know/No Opinion 24.0
3/4 Morning Consult polled 767 Hispanic/Latino/Latina/Latinx Americans regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary in January

RESULTS LATIN RESPONDENTS
Sanders 18.8%
Biden 15.0
O'Rourke 7.0
Harris 3.8
Warren 3.7
Booker 2.2
Bloomberg 2.0
Castro 1.6
Other 16.3
Don't Know/No Opinion 29.7
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Doug Johnson Hatlem
@djjohnso
1/4 Morning Consult has polled 1711 people of color regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary so far in January

RESULTS ALL POC
Biden 20.4%
Sanders 15.5%
O'Rourke 5.1%
Harris 4.6%
Warren 3.9%
Booker 2.5%
Other* 19.4%
Don't Know/No Opinion 28.6%

*No other candidate 2.5% or greater
2/4 Morning Consult has polled 758 black people regarding the 2020 Democratic Primary so far in January

RESULTS AFRICAN AMERICAN RESPONDENTS
Biden 27.8%
Sanders 13.2%
Harris 5.3%
O'Rourke 4.5%
Warren 3.8%
Booker 3.2%
Other* 18.3%
DK/No Opinion 23.9%
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Sanders 18.1%
Biden 15.1%
O'Rourke 7.0%
Harris 3.8%
Warren 3.7%
Booker 2.3%
Other* 21.4%
DK/No Opinion 28.7%
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