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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 2 min read Read on Twitter
It's sort of amazing how many stupid, unforced errors the White House makes, a lot of which seem almost contemptuous toward people outside of Trump's base, which is not large enough to get him reelected by itself.
Well, at least Trump is smarter about politics than DeVos:
This is from the **Deputy Director of Communications** for Trump's 2020 campaign and really goes to what I was saying about the WH having contempt for people outside of the Trump base.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Your argument has nothing to do with reality, that's the problem, bro.
p.s. You continue to cite a paper in which you critique our *now-cast* (a deliberately volatile hypothetical of what would happen in an election held today) and mistake it for our *forecast* but because you're such a stubborn idiot you won't admit to this very basic mistake.
p.p.s. We've been publishing forecasts for 11 years & they're extremely well-calibrated (if anything the politics forecasts are a bit *underconfident*). This totally undermines any semblance of a point you think you have so I get why you're mad, bro. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/checking-our-w…
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
So, we published an interactive today that basically looks at every probabilistic forecast that FiveThirtyEight has ever made (dating back to 2008).

Here's what we found: When we say 70 percent, it *really does* mean 70 percent. 53eig.ht/2OWhD33
Technically speaking, our elections forecasts have been a bit *under-confident*, meaning favorites have won a bit MORE often than they're supposed to, but the differences from perfect calibration aren't statistically significant. Overall, the forecasts are really well-calibrated.
Here's the interactive itself. Obviously, there are lots of ways to criticize 538. But some of the more philosophical criticisms about probabilistic forecasting just don't hold up very well if you look at the actual track record. 53eig.ht/2uNtE1c
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I have quite a few different thoughts on this.

1) People inside the bubble (includes Ezra & me) have difficulty understanding what people hear outside the bubble. That's a challenging problem. Our gut impressions are often way wrong. It's good to validate against external data.
2. Almost all media is now niche media. Lots of seemingly popular/influential news products have audiences of only 10s or 100s of thousands of people or low 7 figures at most. That's not a lot in a country of 327 million people. That makes media analysis harder than it once was.
3. There are a lot of very complicated feedback loops between and among "the audience" and "the media". It's hard to know who is influencing who. The causality is difficult to tease out. It's especially difficult in the primaries, where "party elites" also play a role.
Read 7 tweets

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