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1/ The SEC this morning took one paragraph to demolish 8 pages of sound & fury from Musk's sur-reply. Let's quickly review where things stand. 
2/ The Court gave the parties until March 26 to request an evidentiary hearing. In its reply brief, the SEC has said, "No, thanks", and now, after reviewing Musk's sur-reply, it says, "Still No". Unless, that is, the Court is curious about Musk's negotiating history evidence.
3/ I'm guessing the Court will not be curious. So, the SEC will not be invited to file a sur-sur-reply. The briefing wars are over. It's now up to Musk & counsel to decide whether they want an evidentiary hearing.
4/ Musk's legal counsel has until midnight tomorrow to request the hearing. After that, the hammer of a contempt decision could drop at any time.
5/ So, if the parties are negotiating (and you can be sure the negotiations include $TSLA, too), then they had better come to terms by end-of-day tomorrow. After that, the negotiating landscape can change dramatically, one way or the other.
6/ I expect the Court to make its ruling with a written opinion explaining the ruling. That's the federal court way. It gives the appeals court a way to evaluate the reasoning of the decision it's asked to review.
7/ Judge Nathan and her clerks may have already started writing opinion drafts. But nothing will be final until she has all the evidence before her. So, Musk could still surprise with some unexpected evidence at a hearing.
8/ Will Musk's counsel request a hearing? No, because he is a dangerous witness. Yes, because he knows he's behind in the game, and he has to take chances, and because Musk will insist on it and overrule his lawyers' advice. Take your pick.
9/ Why do I say he's behind in the game? Musk had one good argument: that he had to make the initial determination about whether the tweet contained, or reasonably contain, information material to $TSLA or its stockholders before deciding whether a tweet needed pre-approval.
10/ But there are three problems with that argument. First, it's a "reasonable person" standard. The "around 500k" tweet was just obviously material; no reasonable person can deny it and even Musk now concedes it.
11/ Second, if Musk had submitted some of his tweets for pre-approval, he might have a fighting chance. But he submitted NONE. That suggests he was determined to defy the SEC. It suggests, shall we say, contempt for the SEC and, worse, for the Court that approved the settlement.
12/ Third, Musk's explanation that the tweet was consistent with prior guidance has huge problems. The only approved prior guidance was delivery of 360k to 400k in 2019 (which is already looking optimistic).
13/ Thanks to Musk's tweeting, 2019 $TSLA delivery guidance now ranges from 360k to 600k (or more). A crazy situation.
14/ Lots we don't know. Is the $TSLA Board still falling in behind Musk, offering him its full support? Are any Board members upset with that tack? Are the parties negotiating? Is the SEC continuing to make information requests? Is it issuing subpoenas?
15/ Do the members of the $TSLA Disclosure Controls Committee (Buss, Gracias, and Murdoch) understand the SEC is highly displeased with them as well?
16/ Civil contempt law is a difficult area. Pity Judge Nathan, who, if she finds contempt, will have to fashion some remedy. Elon Musk is not a man who is easily controlled.
17/ And Musk has only a distant relationship with the truth. The SEC alleged some serious outright fraudulent lies in its September lawsuit. And Musk cannot deny them. Not now. Not ever. He's a liar and a fraud.
18/ I don't expect Judge Nathan to try to re-engineer $TSLA's corporate governance, and you shouldn't either. That goes beyond the province of a U.S. District Court Judge. But I don't expect her to be happy about being put in this situation, either.
19/ Regardless of what Judge Nathan does, and even if she decides to deny the SEC's motion, it's simply stunning that $TSLA's CEO would choose to defy the most important corporate regulatory agency in the world.
20/ It's even more stunning that the $TSLA Board has chosen to go along for the ride. <fin>
