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1/ Let's try this again.
Wanted to add some additional state color. My data is subjective and mostly based on visual confirmation. As you know, MOR-EV's is the only data available to us in MA apart from the national VIN databses and it is limited. It needs to be supplemented.
Wanted to add some additional state color. My data is subjective and mostly based on visual confirmation. As you know, MOR-EV's is the only data available to us in MA apart from the national VIN databses and it is limited. It needs to be supplemented.
2/ Big M3 sales declines are not just a NY, TX, and FL phenomenon. Boston agents since January 5th have assiduously maintained a list of over 220 model 3 VINs. As of last night, all but 10 of those VINs had disappeared from the lots in Boston. Good news for Tesla, right?
3/ Nope.
1500 M3's were sold in 4Q18 in Greater New England, 600 in Dec.
Jan/Feb '19 were dead for the 3 (and the S and X too). MOR data suggest the same; visual confirms back it up.
We estimate only 300-400 3's were sold in Q1 19 for, at best, a 60% seq. decline.
1500 M3's were sold in 4Q18 in Greater New England, 600 in Dec.
Jan/Feb '19 were dead for the 3 (and the S and X too). MOR data suggest the same; visual confirms back it up.
We estimate only 300-400 3's were sold in Q1 19 for, at best, a 60% seq. decline.
4/ Tesla's problem this qtr was inventory sat for so long and there was really only movement for two or three weeks.
5/ Here is the back of Norwood from 1/5/19 through 3/14/19. Various sources recorded and tracked the physical location of every VIN on the list for almost seven weeks. At best, from 1/5/19 through 3/14/19 there were occasional VIN refreshes, maybe 100 cars. 
6/ Norwood front. Three months apart.
7/ Walpole. Three months apart.
8/ Basically Tesla turned over these lots in two weeks. Nothing for nine weeks, which was tracked, then mayhem. Yes cars, mostly 3's, moved in and out during the 3 months, but it couldn't have been more than 200. So the sequential decline in 3 sales in MA was big.
9/ I'm of course assuming all those 3's were sold. I have driven by the lots at least 5x in March where I witnessed car carriers being loaded with new 3's and driven away. One of those carriers headed to ADESA. These were loaded today and were not dropped at the Dedham DC.
10/ Also possible that some of these cars are being hauled for home delivery. This covered carrier loaded an S, and X and a 3. I assume covered carriers are used for home delivery but one was also seen in FLA dropping cars at the West Palm DC
11/ Agents have counted at least 30 new M3 VINs in Norwood from 297xxx on up, and 50 new M3 VINs total. At least 15 M3 VINs are 300xxx+, highest was 313984. The 300xxx VINs all had dates written in crayon on the windshields from 4/2-4/16 which I assume was a delivery date.
12/ There are literally no more 3's on any lot except Norwood. If just 50 new 3 VINs turn over every two weeks, Tesla is in trouble. This was the issue for us this Q. We expected a constant refresh of cars. There simply wasn't and we have physical proof.
13/ Here's where it gets fun again.
Forget the 3. The S and the X are dead.
Including Walpole and CW, there are comfortably 150 S and X on the three lots combined. One could make a reasonable argument that hardly any S have moved in three months.
Forget the 3. The S and the X are dead.
Including Walpole and CW, there are comfortably 150 S and X on the three lots combined. One could make a reasonable argument that hardly any S have moved in three months.
14/ So, to me, this is the story now, the collapse in S demand, which is a killer for margins and which also has a host of very negative spillover effects, like this:
15/ Greater New England has been 4.5% of total Tesla North American sales. A 60% sequential decline in 3 sales and the utter collapse of S sales does not bode well for a hyper growth company trading at an obscene premium over comps with a horrendously stretched balance sheet.
16/ Soon we will get the MOR-EV data. If any M3 sales hit the database we know those are the under-$50k sticker cars, which will be brutal for his margins. If he sold everything on the lots for more than $50k, he didn't sell enough of them to matter. Pictures don't lie.
17/ If you choose to push payables to the max, and sales shrink, as clearly Tesla's have right now, a liquidity trap looms. Musk knows his total addressable market has been mostly filled so cash won't be coming from contribution margin in the future to the extent needed.
This remains among the most compelling shorts of my investment career. This kind of opportunity never gets old, nor is it tiring in the least. It is a boundless opportunity.
$TSLAQ for life.
$TSLAQ for life.
