,
8 tweets,
2 min read
Read on Twitter
It’s a good time to re-up my speculation from December that May and Corbyn would strike a deal, and the reasons for it. /1 on.ft.com/2R0OUgJ
The most likely deal is one with the two things they both need/want/accept: the withdrawal agreement and imminent elections. (For May, elections immediately after Brexit Day is her best chance at remaining PM for more than a few months, while sticking it to her worst enemies.) /2
It’s unlikely that they will strike a deal that contains something neither wants, in particular a second referendum or a delay beyond a minimal pragmatic one. /3
That leaves the main disagreement, which is whether to commit to a permanent customs union or stick with May’s aspiration for a magical customs arrangement which both is and isn’t a customs union. This disagreement will not prevent a deal; it can be resolved in many ways. /4
One solution is for May to accept a customs union. Being “forced” to do so actually makes her goal of frictionless trade in goods a little more realistic. /5
Another solution is to agree to disagree, and commit to an imminent general election in which the parties would campaign on their respective visions. The people would settle it. EU would accept a tweak to political declaration that gave room for a new mandate from UK voters. /6
A third solution would be to agree to disagree and pass the buck to the House of Commons in a runoff ballot between two options or a transferable vote between those and perhaps other options. /7
All of this can be done fast, and doing so is in the interest of both. The best bet remains that a majority of Tory and Labour MPs will pass the Withdrawal Agreement and either pass tweaked political declaration or amend MV to make it unnecessary. Imminent Brexit and GE. /8+ends
