Thread by @RemiAdekoya1

Morning All! Day 9 of our #NigerianPoliticalHistory sessions based on my thesis research.

Today, we'll discuss regional ethnic minority fears before independence, fears of Northern political domination and 1959 elections that determined Nigeria's first post-colonial government.

Towards mid-1957, it was clear Nigeria would be independent by 1959 or 1960, just not exact date. Question now turned to issues of post-independence. As we said yesterday, in each region, East, West and North, ethnic minorities were worried they would be dominated by the majority

Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa-Fulani groups in their region via parties like AG, NCNC and NPC which were seen as controlled by these group's leaders- Awo, Zik and Bello. In the North, groups from today's Middle-Belt area agitated for their own state, in East, groups from today's

Calabar, Rivers, Bayelsa area did same as did groups from today's Delta, Edo area in the West. Bello and NPC insisted categorically they would not part with "an inch" of Northern territory. Southern politicians were more ambiguous. On the one hand, Southern nationalists generally

supported the reorganization of Nigeria into a larger number of states based on criteria of cultural and linguistic affinities. On the other hand, once their parties captured control of their regions, NCNC and AG leaders were reluctant for new states to emerge from territory

under their control. Instead, they actively supported separatist tendencies in their rivals' regions. Awo and his AG party worked particularly hard to support Middle-Belters wanting to break away from the North. They feared if the North retained all its territory and population

into independence, its elites would dominate politics at the centre. In response to minority agitations, a Minorities Commission was set up by the British in 1957 to address the issue of minority fears regarding their fate in an independent Nigeria and their demands for new state

creation. After touring Nigeria and weighing the arguments and counter-arguments of various representatives and community leaders, the commission recommended against the creation of new states, arguing this could foster nationwide fragmentation along ethnic lines, asserting it

was unclear whether majority opinion favoured creating new states in regions involved and questioning the viability of new states. It recommended constitutional safeguards guaranteeing minority rights and a strongly federal system of government where no single ethnic nationality

could dominate. Bello's NPC welcomed the decision, a favourable one for them. It left the North intact, larger than the other two regions combined.

Awo's AG, which had wanted the roughly 500,000 Yorubas living in the Northern Region to join their "kith-and-kin" in the West

was predictably very critical of the outcome with Awo going as far as saying this decision was taken despite the "inherent dictatorial tendencies of some ethnic groups", by which he meant the Hausa-Fulanis, especially the latter. Zik's NCNC, also unwilling to see the East lose

any territory, said independence was the overriding goal and state creation could be deferred for the moment. Bello's NPC now had every chance of capturing power at the centre after independence as the North held on to its allocation of 174 of 312 seats in federal House of Rep

Theoretically, if NPC could capture 157 of 174 available seats in its Northern stronghold, Bello, who was very frank about where his primary loyalties lay, could end up controlling a majority in the national assembly without having to win a single constituency in the South.

The British by now would have preferred Balewa controlled NPC as they saw him as more of a pan-Nigerian as opposed to Bello.

In an August 1958 letter to the Colonial Secretary, Governor Robertson wrote: "Perhaps the single biggest drawback to a strong Nigeria is the fact

that the Sardauna [Bello], is the undisputed head of the NPC...and because of this is probably the most powerful political figure in Nigeria. But his interest very much lies where his own office lies - in the Northern Region - and he tends to think of the federal government,

in so far as he thinks of it at all, as a rather distasteful agency in Lagos which fortunately is run by a Northerner [Balewa], but which must be kept in its place for the benefit of the North."

Zik did not seem as worried about Bello and NPC in a post-colonial Nigeria as Awo.

On September 22, 1958, Awo wrote an article in The Times, arguing that new state creation was a must before independence, deploying a strong threat-scenario: "Before the British pacification of Nigeria, our people were divided into tribal groups which were virtually armed camps.

No man was able to move about free from fear - fear of man, or beast, or of the forces of darkness. It has only been in recent years that our citizens have come to feel that they can move in safety from place to place. It has been freely predicted that when the British leave,

tribal rivalries and suspicions will revive. Such has happened in other new nations. It is my belief that this can be avoided through the creation of three new states or regions. Nigeria is a heterogeneous community consisting of people of widely different origins, ethnical

affinities and cultures. The building of a nation out of these diversities is one of the boldest and noblest experiments in human history. But the minority ethnical groups in Nigeria entertain fears which have been recognized by the Minorities Commission...

As long as millions of Nigerians live in constant fear of their fellow citizens, so long will the federation of Nigeria be in danger of disintegration."

Pic of cited excerpts attached:

However, by 1959, electioneering kicked off in earnest. AG probably had the best-funded campaign with their leaders criss-crossing the country in helicopters, campaigning especially hard in the seat-rich North as well as the East, where they hoped to make enough in-roads with

regional minorities to be able win a majority. However, as Sklar and Whitaker observed, the 1959 election demonstrated once again "the decisive supremacy of each regional government party in the section of the region inhabited by the majority ethnic group..

NCNC won all 50 seats in the Igbo constituencies of the Eastern Region. NPC won 104 seats in the upper-North dominated by Hausa-Fulanis and the AG won 32 of the 47 available seats in the Yoruba sector of the Western Region..AG also won 14 seats of a total of 23 in the minority

sector of the East, and, in alliance with the United Middle Belt Congress, 25 seats in the lower North. Similarly, NCNC won 14 of 15 seats in the non-Yoruba areas of the West. All told, NPC commanded a total of 142 of the 312 seats in Nigeria's federal House of Representatives

NCNC and its Northern coalition partner, NEPU, controlled 89 seats while AG had 73 seats."

Perhaps we shall stop there today. Tomorrow we shall discuss one of the great mysteries in Nigerian political history: why AG and NCNC did not form Nigeria's first post-colonial government

as they had enough combined seats to do that and AG was ready to offer the Premiership of Nigeria to Zik since NCNC controlled more seats than them. However, NCNC decided to partner with Bello's NPC instead.

Till tomorrow then, thanks for reading and have a great day folks!😃

Ah, perhaps pics of an AG propaganda document showing the atmosphere of 1958-59 with regards to Awo's AG and Bello's NPC and the North.

It reveals the aims of AG's alliance with UMBC, a group agitating for a Middle-Belt state to be carved out of the Northern Region.