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1. The EU's response to any UK extension request will, I suspect, be the crunch moment in the Brexit negotiations. There is an opportunity to lay the basis for long-term comity, rather than leaving the poisoned chalice of a coerced agreement, and the chance may not come again.
2. The EU has got itself into a strategic dead end by insisting that Withdrawal issues be settled first, and only after that will the future relationship be considered. But the issues are inextricably entangled & can only sensibly be resolved simultaneously.
3. Fortuitously, by chance of history there is one set of arrangements, covering the central issue of trading arrangements, that is *both* a candidate future relationship matter *and* a withdrawal/transition matter, and that is the EEA Agreement.
4. 'EEA continuity' (across both the Brexit day and end-of-transition day boundaries) is a legitmate withdrawal issue. Since it hasn't ben discussed before, it's a new matter that would justify an A50 extension.
5. So the EU could, & I think should, say to the UK: "Look, the only new issue that we can legitimately talk about during the A50 period is 'EEA continuity' & its implications for the yet to be settled WA. If you want to do that, the extension is agreed. Otherwise it's a no."
6. In arguing *against* a long extension in his speech this week, @guyverhofstadt was, in effect, echoing Jacob Burckhardt's late 19th century warning about the 'terrible simplicateurs' about to descend on Europe. It was a timely point that signalled the urgency of matters.
7. The outcome that would establish a stable basis for comity would be a quickly agreed WA providing for 'EEA continuity', with the UK in the EFTA governance pillar (subject to the consent of the EFTA-3) and the Irish Protocol removed (because rendered redundant by the EEA).
8. If that could be negotiated, Mrs May could then depart in peace, mission fulfilled (including increased UK control of residency and immigration matters).
The chance probably won't come again.
The chance probably won't come again.
