Thread by @pmdfoster

As we warned a week ago #Brexit talks are deadlocked.

But Barnier and Davis hinted at progress in Dec

Why? 1/

telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/0…

First, where we are at: UK made big concessions in Florence on $$$ and agreeing to put A50 Withdrawal agreement direct into UK law /2

The UK is frustrated by EU27 response.

Feels Florence deserved better and won't move again until has something to show for it. /3

Per UK source: €20bn for this MFF is show of good faith. It must buy future relation talks or UK will 'pay twice'. /4

Current UK politics won't accept Florence concession if UK get's nothing for it.

So UK pols making a show of hanging tough. /5

For it's part EU also playing hardball.

Ironically it's not Barnier who is the bogeyman but EU 27 - Fr, Ger - who are being tough. /6

The landing zones on Citizens Rights are clearly there, now May has made big concession on 'direct effect' /7

Davis has offered grand bargain on EU right of return for UK future free movement.

And understand cut-off date is agreed for Brexit day /8

Also family reunions could be fixed by time-limited grace period during transition say.

Shorter: its largely done. /9

Given May's record of caving - on sequencing in July, on money/citizens in Sept, there is expectation she will cave again in Dec /10

But May needs enough to show for this - ie opening to shape of future deal - while EU gets commitment on pensions/loans /11

But how?

Current idea seems to be to agree a 'scoping' exercise among EU 27 on transition and future relations, but w/in A50 scope. /12

EU dip notes that includes "taking a/c of future relationship"

So Barnier mandate remains fixed. But EU 27 scope future

Question... /13

Is 'scoping' talk enough for May to claim she's triggered future relationship discussion, and write necessary cheque/commitment? /14

Does the EU27 version of compromise look anything like saleable to UK domestic audience?

There is big risk EU overplays hand. /15

But fundamentally both UK and EU27 seem to agree that 'no deal' is a risk - but not really a viable option. /16

Plans to buy up motorway service stations as customs parks are really for domestic UK consumption. EU not fooled or frightened. /17

So all eyes on next week's EUCO summit.

Expect more brinkmanship, but perhaps underlying concession on future from EU27. /18

Then two months of rising tension as UK tries to get max possible for its 'money card'.

There may even be a walkout.

But ultimately... /19

My money 80-20 is on a deal, unless EU puts on more pressure that Theresa May's brittle premiership can bear. /20 END