He only has #Baloch separatists and a handful of fighters under the #ISKP banner on #Afghanistan.
For those who understand #Afghanistan’s landscape, you know 3-4 provinces on the Pakistan border are hotbeds for #terrorist activity. #PakArmy has been firing mortars into those areas for months, eliminating supply and escape routes.
Those same 3-4 provinces are where the #Afghan#Taliban#TTA is fully engaged in fighting #ISKP & #TTP splinter groups, who can’t find an alliance.
The attacks we are seeing now are because of infiltrations across our border facilitated by supporters within #Pakistan.
The question becomes: how much will they escalate while #India and @narendramodi face an election cycle?
Our analysis says the escalations will be limited but violent. The targets will be for maximum psychological impact, not high body counts.
Our enemies want to take us back to 2007 & #LalMasjid. As students of #terrorism in #Pakistan, you know the #TTP emerged after this event.
If #Pakistan can be pushed back, which it cannot, it would make all of our successes against #terrorism zero.
A global isolation because the problem we conquered so easily re-emerged.
This is the test for #Pakistan’s sovereignty. This is what will make Pakistan a superpower or a failed state.
The battle is psychological and will be fought in that space called your mind.
They will quote 1971 because they have nothing else to brag about. #Kargil, 1965, and the recent air showdown, show #Pakistan can’t be defeated as easily as India believes.
As the #Taliban continue to claim moving #TTP fighters to western #Afghanistan, TTP fighters have been confirmed in northern AFG, today the head of district intelligence of the Taliban’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GID) can under attack in #Badakhshah province.
For those unfamiliar with #Badakhshah provincial borders…
Another important factor to keep in mind is the #geological value of #Badakhshah province.
This is of key importance to #China’s investment into minerals in #Afghanistan.
Some interesting reports coming out of #Afghanistan over the past few days:
- roughly 2,000 #Taliban suicide bombers have been moved to the #Iran|ian border since the end of May.
- #ISKP has also started moving their fighters to northern #Afghanistan, according to sources within an anti-#Taliban group. They are being moved to #Badakhshan, #Takhar and some others.
Apparently, there are both @CIA and #ISI fingerprints on this.
The #TTP occupation in #Swat is significantly more than is being reported in the domestic media.
Many villages are under TTP control, and search operations have been on-going for more than 5 months.
It is no surprise that the TTP has returned to Swat for us @commandeleven.
For the past 3 years, we have repeatedly informed and warned that the TTP presence was growing and their influence was increasing.
Deaf ears.
We have repeatedly argued against the negotiating table, because it is a sign of weakness.
Why should we negotiate?
The news of Gen. #FaizHameed's deal to hand over parts of #KPK to #TTP, in return for peace for the country - that is accepting defeat and emboldening the enemy.
Is it any surprise that there was a significant uptick in violence from December onwards, when TTP walked away again?
This is a significant foreign policy mistake by the #US & @SecPompeo
Having a defense collaboration agreement already in place had already made regional players uncomfortable, the sharing of intelligence data with #India is a recipe for disaster in the region.
The #US alignment with the #Modi government clearly shows that they are not interested in human rights or justice with #India
Rather, the US comprehensive support with embolden @narendramodi to go further than previously imagined.
What makes this even more significant is the coming withdrawal from #Afghanistan, where the #US will want to secure their minor gains. #Indian involvement will raise the stakes for failure for #US foreign & military policy.