Many people seem to be spreading rumors that #terrorism hasn’t been defeated in #Pakistan.

Remember Manohar Parrikar’s statement: bleed #Pakistan with a thousand cuts.

The easy translation of Ajit #Doval’s proxy warfare strategy for #Pakistan. Image
When he lost #UzairBaloch & #MQM, he lost control of #Karachi, #Pakistan’s financial hub.

When he lost #TTP, he lost his #terrorist front in #KPK.

He only has #Baloch separatists and a handful of fighters under the #ISKP banner on #Afghanistan.
For those who understand #Afghanistan’s landscape, you know 3-4 provinces on the Pakistan border are hotbeds for #terrorist activity. #PakArmy has been firing mortars into those areas for months, eliminating supply and escape routes.
Those same 3-4 provinces are where the #Afghan #Taliban #TTA is fully engaged in fighting #ISKP & #TTP splinter groups, who can’t find an alliance.
The attacks we are seeing now are because of infiltrations across our border facilitated by supporters within #Pakistan.

The question becomes: how much will they escalate while #India and @narendramodi face an election cycle?
Our analysis says the escalations will be limited but violent. The targets will be for maximum psychological impact, not high body counts.

Our enemies want to take us back to 2007 & #LalMasjid. As students of #terrorism in #Pakistan, you know the #TTP emerged after this event.
If #Pakistan can be pushed back, which it cannot, it would make all of our successes against #terrorism zero.

A global isolation because the problem we conquered so easily re-emerged.
This is the test for #Pakistan’s sovereignty. This is what will make Pakistan a superpower or a failed state.

The battle is psychological and will be fought in that space called your mind.
#India has nothing to fight us with.

They will quote 1971 because they have nothing else to brag about. #Kargil, 1965, and the recent air showdown, show #Pakistan can’t be defeated as easily as India believes.

#PakistanZindabad
.@commandeleven’s #India’s New Normal with #Pakistan briefing paper for further information.

commandeleven.com/india-new-norm… ImageImageImageImage

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More from @commandeleven

Jun 18, 2023
As the #Taliban continue to claim moving #TTP fighters to western #Afghanistan, TTP fighters have been confirmed in northern AFG, today the head of district intelligence of the Taliban’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GID) can under attack in #Badakhshah province.
For those unfamiliar with #Badakhshah provincial borders… Image
Another important factor to keep in mind is the #geological value of #Badakhshah province.

This is of key importance to #China’s investment into minerals in #Afghanistan. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 16, 2023
Some interesting reports coming out of #Afghanistan over the past few days:

- roughly 2,000 #Taliban suicide bombers have been moved to the #Iran|ian border since the end of May.
- #ISKP has also started moving their fighters to northern #Afghanistan, according to sources within an anti-#Taliban group. They are being moved to #Badakhshan, #Takhar and some others.

Apparently, there are both @CIA and #ISI fingerprints on this.
- #Taliban are moving its fighters closer to the #Tajikistan border. Fighters are also moving to the #Badakhshan province, bordering #Tajikistan.

- #TTP have become so emboldened to expand their operations around #Pakistan, including new waliyats in #Balochistan & #Punjab.
Read 13 tweets
Jun 13, 2023
Let's take this thread into more context for those outside the region, and those unfamiliar with the #TTP operations in #Swat.

The #TTP typically move through 2 routes:

- from #Afghanistan to #Elum in #Buner to either of their bases in #Ghat, south of #MalamJabba.
The 2nd route is from #Kunar, #Afghanistan through #LowerDir or #Bajaur to #GhatPeochar, the former stronghold of the #TTP during #Fazlullah's occupation of #Swat.

It was also one of the most difficult battle is the fight to reclaim Swat from the #terrorists.
We know of both police and military operations on going in areas including #GhatPeochar, mountains around #MalamJabba, #Charbagh, and #Banjot.
Read 12 tweets
Jun 12, 2023
The #TTP occupation in #Swat is significantly more than is being reported in the domestic media.

Many villages are under TTP control, and search operations have been on-going for more than 5 months.

It is no surprise that the TTP has returned to Swat for us @commandeleven.
For the past 3 years, we have repeatedly informed and warned that the TTP presence was growing and their influence was increasing.

Deaf ears.

We have repeatedly argued against the negotiating table, because it is a sign of weakness.

Why should we negotiate?
The news of Gen. #FaizHameed's deal to hand over parts of #KPK to #TTP, in return for peace for the country - that is accepting defeat and emboldening the enemy.

Is it any surprise that there was a significant uptick in violence from December onwards, when TTP walked away again?
Read 18 tweets
Sep 15, 2021
Why must @ImranKhanPTI disgrace #Pakistan with his confused history?

During the war with the #Soviets, there was no #alQaeda or #Taliban. There was only #Mujahideen.

After the Soviet withdrawal & civil war, the Taliban emerged. There is no mujahideen in #Afghanistan today.
A major part of #Pakistan’s #PR problem is confused narratives driving confused perceptions.

We didn’t train the #Mujahideen alone. We had help from the #US, @CIA & #SaudiArabia.

Why does the PM forget this & place on the responsibility on Pakistan alone?
What is #Pashtun nationalism’s role in the war on terror?

All the insurgents that attacked #Pakistan post-#LalMasjid were ideological driven. Nothing to do with ethnic or linguistic roots.

It was the creation of the #TTP which kicked off mass #terror attacks in Pakistan.
Read 5 tweets
Oct 28, 2020
This is a significant foreign policy mistake by the #US & @SecPompeo

Having a defense collaboration agreement already in place had already made regional players uncomfortable, the sharing of intelligence data with #India is a recipe for disaster in the region.
The #US alignment with the #Modi government clearly shows that they are not interested in human rights or justice with #India

Rather, the US comprehensive support with embolden @narendramodi to go further than previously imagined.
What makes this even more significant is the coming withdrawal from #Afghanistan, where the #US will want to secure their minor gains. #Indian involvement will raise the stakes for failure for #US foreign & military policy.
Read 5 tweets

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