Thread by @PollBludger

Until the last poll a fortnight ago, Newspoll counted any Clive Palmer votes as "others", i.e. not Coalition, Labor, Greens or One Nation. These votes were split pretty much 50-50 as preferences, based on the 2016 election result. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 1/5

But now the UAP is a separate response option. Whether as an artefact of this, or because UAP really has increased in the past fortnight, or a bit of both, what would have been "others" last time is up from 9% to 12%. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 2/5

But it's not being split evenly anymore because, as @GhostWhoVotes relates (presumably based on what it says in The Oz), UAP preferences are being split 60-40 in favour of the Coalition. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 3/5

This is worth half a point to the Coalition -- which, given the way rounding looks, single-handedly explains the movement from 52-48 to 51-49. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 4/5

Whether the Coalition really does get 60% of UAP prefs, compared with the 53.7% they got from PUP in 2013 (and prefs were being directed their way then as well), remains to be seen. But it's not a judgement founded in polling as such. #newspoll #auspol #ausvotes 1/5