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Those takes are really poor: Why is she unlikely to survive it? I know that journalists are normally not analysts or political scientists who do those kind of strategic takes for living under the scrutiny of nitpicking peers but a bit less intellectual laziness would be helpful.
Yes, it's extraordinary and yes, it will be humiliating giving that it's almost certain that Tories are set to lose a massive amount of seats and tank against Brexit party because large parts of their grassroots and supporters are nuts enough to embrace no deal.
But this doesn't mean anything in terms of her current position. They can't force her to go, if she doesn't want to resign they are stuck with her. Also, does anybody really believe she doesn't know how unpopular she is among grassroots and supporters?
I mean, they also have pollings and plenty of data they can use to draw their conclusions upon. It's not that complicated to be honest. Grassroots want no deal if they have the choice between this WA and no deal. And a WA w/o backstop won't happen.
Alternative arrangements you say? Which one? There are none which would either require new border infrastructure or would lead to a spike in smuggling. Maybe there are some in future, but for now it's not there and also not for the near future.
So the idea here is essentially to get rid of her to be able to force a no deal (or to get this magical WA w/o backstop). This and nothing else is the point in this meeting. Anyone with a bit of analytical knowledge and expertise will tell you that.
And you know what, May is very likely to know that. All of it. So you may wonder why she didn't resign. And the answer is that she knows what it would mean what most matters for her: The Union but also Tories.
You may call it patronising but it looks like she wants to preserve all nation Tories & has major difficulties to see them slide into an ENG nationalist party and to actively pursue a course where breaking up the Union (whether HoC allows an indyref2 or not) may become immanent.
So the question's how this meeting changes anything of the basic risks. Answer: nothing'd change, those risk become more likely to manifest. Since those manifestations threaten her core values, it seems unlikely to me that she makes space for others who will increase those risks.
Wonder how other Brexit pundits see it: @sundersays @APHClarkson @KeohaneDan @Muinchille @odtorson @warmatters
