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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
I was more optimistic about Biden's chances than a lotta people here but even I've gotta say I'm a bit surprised by the magnitude of his polling bounce. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/presiden…
And maybe it ought to prompt a medium-sized* reassessment from news orgs about whether we aren't hearing enough voices from older, nonwhite and non-college Democrats, since they form the backbone of Biden's support.

* Medium-sized because it's still pretty early.
By the way, this is *exactly* one of the reasons that polling is valuable. It serves as a reality check against the implicit biases of journalists and the (largely coastal, white, well-educated, liberal) social circles they inhabit.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
That's not really what Biden is saying in this passage, though. He's not denying that voters are angry. He's saying he doesn't think anger is a good strategy to win the nomination and the general election.
Which, you can agree with or not, but it's a reasonably sophisticated message. And also a fairly common one that's had plenty of political success. "I know you're angry, but we need to rise above it to heal the country" is very Obamaesque, in fact.
Also, these messages are no doubt poll-tested, and the dude is 20 points ahead of anyone else in the polls. I don't want to use that as a cudgel, but our priors ought to be pretty skeptical of "actually, Biden is out of touch with the mood of the Democratic electorate" takes.
Read 3 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
What maybe lies at the heart of this (leaving aside any personal fandom for Sanders and/or antipathy toward Warren or whatever) is a misunderstanding of how the party nomination process really works on the part of Jacobin and certain other parts of the Sanders left.
For instance, in this fascinating article from January, @sunraysunray doesn't trust that Warren is liked by "mainstream Democratic Party policy types". Actually, that's a HUGE ASSET for her! Building a coalition is how nominations are usually won. bit.ly/2Edt9CC
In the context of Jan., where Bernie is polling at ~20% and maybe you can pretend Biden doesn't exist?, it makes more sense. But Sanders backers, with their allergy to coalition-building, have never had a good plan for how to get beyond ~25-30%. And now he's backslid to ~16%.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
Also in today's column, I did a quick-and-dirty thing where I tried to estimate the importance of candidate quality in Senate races. 53eig.ht/2VEUloJ
A very good candidate (someone like Bullock would probably qualify as an ex-governor) might be something like 6-8 points better than an average candidate. That's a lot but... still probably not enough in a state like Montana.
Even a high-quality candidate would need 1 or 2 other things to go right to be a favorite in a red state like MT. Say, a damaged Republican opponent. Or a very favorable national environment, like Democrats had in 2018.
Read 4 tweets

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Lola Netty
@TXTrumpette89
The prosecutor #Biden got fired was leading a wide-ranging corruption probe into the natural gas firm #Burisma Holdings that employed Biden’s younger son, Hunter, as a board member. thehill.com/opinion/white-…
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Teri Kanefield
@Teri_Kanefield
(Thread)
Yesterday I wrote about evidence of a TrumpRussia conspiracy in the prosecution docs.

A follower asked: Did Trump think he’d get away with all of this?

The answer (I believe) is yes.

Seems to me Trump had a 2-part plan.

#1: [If he wins] shut down all investigations.
1/ Winning would put him at the head the executive branch (DOJ, FBI, etc), so this must have seemed entirely doable.

He always behaves as if he can run the US executive branch the way he runs his businesses (and charity!)
He’s the boss. Everyone else obeys his orders.
2/ He tried to get Comey to shut down the investigation.

When that didn’t work, he evidently believed firing Comey would solve the problem.

That didn't work, so he vowed to fight back.
politico.com/story/2018/04/…

This strategy is known as obstructing justice, and it’s illegal.
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Another Planet's Hell 🌊
@cravennewworld
Don't let #polls determine whether or not you vote. Don't assume a victory or a loss based on current polling. Why? Because they are inherently flawed, and not truly reflective of a whole group of people of any sort. (more)
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Kyle
@HNIJohnMiller
1) Sooooo.... h/t @PoliticalOrgy for pointing this out.

I have no idea WTF Drudge is doing right now.
2) The big story is that Beto is raising just a ridiculous, presidential level amount of money for his Senate campaign in Texas.
3) A race that shows him down beyond polling margins of error. realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/se…
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Kaz Weida
@kazweida
This #SaturdayMorning we're addressing a complaint from those who say they won't bother voting this November.

What does it matter? they think. Gerrymandering has rigged the election. I'm in a red state or a red district. My vote won't count.

Here's why it matters.
👇
(THREAD)
(2) The GOP has erected many barriers to voting, including voter ID laws & lax security that undermines voter confidence in elections. But perhaps their most powerful tool is voter suppression through gerrymandering.

It's how the GOP won the House in 2012
nytimes.com/2018/06/19/opi…
(3) Gerrymandering is when state legislatures draw up districts in order to heavily weight conservative votes. Republican gerrymandering after the 2010 census helped win a majority of House seats for the GOP in 2012 even though they got fewer votes across congressional districts.
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Teri Kanefield
@Teri_Kanefield
(thread) Carter Page and Fox News

Seems clear by now that the FISA warrant was based on ample evidence that Carter Page was an agent of a foreign power.

@HoarseWisperer makes a good point: The warrant ONLY allows surveil of Page.
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1/ The Trump-Nunes-GOP meltdown must mean the allegations about Page are true & the people who talked to Page know they're busted.

From that, people conclude Trump is in a panic.

So I went to check the 538 polling aggregate:
projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval…
2/ Trump’s approval ticked up slightly over the past few days, but has largely held steady since May of last year.

Despite Mueller, despite all the news about Russia hacking and attacking the United States & Helsinki, Trump retains 42% approval.
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