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Also in today's column, I did a quick-and-dirty thing where I tried to estimate the importance of candidate quality in Senate races. 53eig.ht/2VEUloJ 
A very good candidate (someone like Bullock would probably qualify as an ex-governor) might be something like 6-8 points better than an average candidate. That's a lot but... still probably not enough in a state like Montana.
Even a high-quality candidate would need 1 or 2 other things to go right to be a favorite in a red state like MT. Say, a damaged Republican opponent. Or a very favorable national environment, like Democrats had in 2018.
So if you're, say, Bullock or Beto or Abrams, you probably *do* have a chance *if* a *lot* of things go right. Whereas a generic Democrat wouldn't. But it's not a particularly good chance. You're gonna lose, I don't know, 4 out of 5 times or something.
