Thread by @fascinatorfun

Here are SOME outcomes from Best for Britain’s Poll.

The full data have not been made available yet.

But there is a calculator, inserting your postcode and a tool to play with changes of %. Even 1-2% variation can +1 remain seat
bestforbritain.org/vote

In the NE. This is the projected vote share result.

Next tweet is what could occur with a bit of a push for LD and LP.

The real question is WHERE would the seats come from to get that second seat, whether LP or LD?

Slightly frustratingly the tool got stuck when I sptried to shift % share votes around between LD and Labour leaving BXP the same.

Variation 1 was where the LP vote share 🔽 to 22% (stuck on 21%) & LD 🔼 19%.

1 seat BXP, 1 seat LP, 1 Seat LD

When the tool unsticks I shall show what happens when LD votes move to LP.

Still sticking.

But I was able to capture what would happen if CHUK were willing to vote for LD, even if LP picked up a couple of %

It is sticking too much for me to carry on with other variations tonight.

The point that I was going to make was that if the BXP vote does not shift it would take LP to find + 9.5-10% votes from the other parties to get that 2nd seat.

However if the aim is truly to defeat the BXP the most economical shift of votes is in fact towards the LDs @ +c.6%

I was going to play with variants about how that could be achieved and whether 5% might do it, but the tool stuck so could not.

In fact Labour would still get its first seat if it lost 8% of their prospective vote.
They are, in effect, wasted votes and +10% is going to be hard.

There are a series of other polls coming out today (Sunday), but await details, cohort size and methodology (& if divided into regions).

Also there is another Remain United poll due out Tuesday that I believe will provide regional analysis and use MRP data, & quite large.