Thread by @HakimAbdi

While I cannot attest to the veracity of these reports, I think there are misconceptions here about climate-linked humanitarian crises. One of the effects of climate change is the increased frequency of extreme events such as droughts and floods. #Thread 1/10

https://twitter.com/MowliidAHassan/status/1136699335805231106

So, just because there have been severe floods in certain parts of the country *does not* negate the occurrence of droughts in other parts. I think the term "localized" needs to be emphasized in this context because the impact of extreme weather events is seldom uniform. 2/10

Here is a very basic background of the rainy season over Somalia. During the Gu, the Somali Jet plays a key role in transporting moist air from an area of high pressure around south of Madagascar, past the Horn of Africa to India. The Jet dumps its moisture along the way. 3/10

That area of high pressure, called the Mascarene High, forms over the southern Indian Ocean & is crucial for the generation of monsoon winds. The stronger the high pressure, the stronger the winds. The generation of the High is linked to what's happening around Antarctica. 4/10

As the region around Antarctica gets warmer, the weaker the Mascarene High gets & the amount of moisture transported decreases. The reason Antarctica is in the picture is because the Mascarene High is "fueled" by the temperature difference between the equator and Antarctica. 5/10

That is why the ice sheets are important. Anyway, when that moist air goes overland in the Horn, it rises because of the low pressure created by the warming land at this time of the year. This low pressure sucks in moisture-filled winds coming from the ocean & we get the Gu. 6/10

What I wrote so far becomes relevant here. As Earth's equilibrium is taken off-balance due to climate change, the mechanism by which rains fall in Somalia also gets off-balance. So, instead of rains being more-or-less evenly spread across the season. They fall erratically. 7/10

This means that they may fall all at once in one or a few parts of the country, while other areas get no rain at all. When that happens, the rain that is supposed to be spread across vast areas over time is concentrated in a few areas over a short period. Enter floods. 8/10

This is how you can have floods and droughts in the same season. Remember that floods can also cause famines because the root cause of famine is inaccessibility. Drought isn't the only culprit causing starvation. Some rain is barwaaqo, but too much of it is habaar. 9/10

And because of climate change, this will be happening more and more often: nytimes.com/2018/12/12/cli… #Fin 10/10

Here is some scientific literature that is relevant to the thread above:

science.sciencemag.org/content/333/60…

sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

nature.com/articles/ngeo1…

nature.com/articles/nclim…

I need to emphasize here that I am not supporting anyone's narrative of what is going on in Somalia. It simply a fact that droughts and floods can, and have occured in the same season. This is driven by changes in climate that have been getting worse over the past few decades.

That said, drought and floods **do not** cause famine on their own. They happen in other parts of the world and no famines occur (e.g. USA). Meanwhile famines occur without being caused by floods or drought (e.g. Yemen).

Famine are caused by inaccessibility to food. And accessibility is the domain of the government. Poor governance causes famines. India experiences floods and droughts on a regular basis, but you never hear of famines there. Famines were common during British Rule.

My point here is that Somalia lacks the good governance structures necessary to be resilient to extreme weather events & mitigate the impact of climate change. Until those structures are built, Somalia will remain dependent on aid. Period. Read more here: hakimabdi.com/blog/downward-…