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It seems that more than three months after its parliamentary election, #Moldova might finally be getting a government today with Maia Sandu, probably the most honest of the country’s leading politicians, at its helm. But challenges remain. THREAD. ipn.md/en/politica/98…
Sandu will lead a minority government that relies on the support of the pro-Russian Socialist Party (PSRM). In exchange of the PSRM’s support, Sandu’s ACUM coalition backed the election of former PM Zinaida Greceanii as speaker. ipn.md/en/politica/98…
The PSRM is led by Igor Dodon, staunchly pro-Russian and extremist, a friend of the World Congress of Families and very much part of the endemic corruption that has defined Moldovan politics in the past years. Read my profile of him from 2017 here. atlanticsentinel.com/2017/01/moldov…
Dodon has been instrumental in helping the government of the Democratic Party (PDM) led by Moldova’s leading oligarch, Vlad Plahotniuc pillage the country with impunity while maintaining the semblance that it is a geopolitical divide that defines Moldovan politics most accurately
The PSRM has been fed by Plahotniuc's media for years & it was expected that the parties would make their de facto coalition official after the February parliamentary election, which saw them emerge with the two biggest groups, a product of an electoral law they adopted together
It is not inconceivable, however that things got out of hand and Dodon now has his own political agenda, which allows him to try sidelining Plahotniuc. There had been a visible fear in the PDM before the election that this might happen.
PSRM and ACUM have 61 mandates in the parliament, allowing the two parties to pass far-reaching institutional reforms that ACUM calls “de-oligarchisation”. Implementing these would mean undoing Plahotniuc’s state capture.
PSRM will be able to stop this anywhere, but it's the best bet for ACUM to do anything. They risk being discredited themselves – no doubt the Russian government would rejoice – but if they play their hand right, they can either achieve something or show that the PSRM is unserious
The EU is also eager to have ACUM in the government. In recent days, EU commissioner Johannes Hahn, Russia’s Moldova point-man Dmitry Kozak and a representative of the American government all visited Chisinau. moldova.org/en/eu-russian-…
Another reason why #Russia might go along with this is #Transnistria: in recent years, reintegration talks have made progress, but were mostly driven by the business interests of Plahotniuc and Sheriff, the conglomerate that owns pretty much everything in Transnistria.
With Plathoniuc sidelined, his businesses, including his media, will now almost certainly do everything to throw sand in the machine, both when it comes to domestic reforms and Transnistrian reintegration.
Plahotniuc has another weapon: the Constitutional Court, packed with PDM appointees from the past years, has ruled that the deadline for the formation of a new government was 7 June, so Dodon should have dissolved the parliament. He does not agree. ipn.md/en/politica/98…
In short, ACUM is playing a very weak hand and will require all the support that the EU can provide. Plahotniuc still remains a powerful player and can cast doubt on the legitimacy of the new government. PSRM’s motivation is unclear.
Even so, Moldova may just have taken a step towards resolving its most pressing problem. The challenge is to show that this is not a geopolitical battle: it is a battle over norms, a question of the rule of law vs. corruption, democracy vs. oligarchic autocracy. (/end of thread)
PS: read also this thread by @MaximEristavi
PPS: I just think this thread wouldn't be complete without @aaron_schwa's puns
