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Does fake news benefit populist parties?
My paper with @michele_ctrl & @afoxinspace is out! We propose quasi-experimental evidence from the 2018 Italian elections in Trentino Alto-Adige/Südtirol.
Link: bit.ly/2ZdB8bc
#FakeNews #FakeNewsMedia #populism 1/7
My paper with @michele_ctrl & @afoxinspace is out! We propose quasi-experimental evidence from the 2018 Italian elections in Trentino Alto-Adige/Südtirol.
Link: bit.ly/2ZdB8bc
#FakeNews #FakeNewsMedia #populism 1/7
Fake news in Italy enjoyed large exposure in anticipation of the 2018 elections. A recent report from @sole24ore estimated @Mov5Stelle and @LegaSalvini voters believing (52% and 49%, respectively) and sharing (22% and 11%) of fake news. 2/7
Trentino-Alto Adige/South Tyrol region is ideal to study fake news. German-speakers Italians vote in the same elections but are not exposed to fake news in Italian, making linguistic filter bubbles an ideal instrument. 3/7
Our dependent variable is populism, which we compute through text analysis (dictionaries) on the Facebook posts by parties and their leaders ahead of the 2013 and 2018 Italian general elections. The most populist parties are @Lega and @Mov5Stelle. 4/7
We combine our IV with a diff-in-diff between the elections in 2013 & 2018: this eliminates the upward bias of parties popular among German-speaking voters, such as @SVP_Suedtirol. 5/7
Result: fake news does NOT have significant impact on votes for populist parties. Should we then just worry less about fake news? 6/7
No. This only means that the causes of the
populist shift in voting have to be found elsewhere. However, misinformation still thrives within
these filter bubbles, still posing a relevant challenge to democracies. 7/7
populist shift in voting have to be found elsewhere. However, misinformation still thrives within
these filter bubbles, still posing a relevant challenge to democracies. 7/7
