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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
, 3 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
And the sheriff's deputy initiated physical contact and *pushed Ujiri first*, according to eyewitness accounts.
Oh, and the sheriff conveniently claims that his body camera shut off the moment Ujiri allegedly made contact and the sheriff's department refuses to share video or photographs from Oracle Arena with the public: tgam.ca/2XZTGvm
This whole thing is deeply embarrassing for Oakland and Alameda County and I'm surprised that @AGBecerra hasn't gotten involved.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I'm not sure I buy that GTO solvers & AI bots are gonna kill poker but important parts of the game are getting closer to being solved: 53eig.ht/30xl18Z
The good news from what I understand is that, while heads-up NL hold 'em is moving toward being solved, multiway play (especially in tournaments, which add additional complexities) isn't particularly close to being solved and it's not even entirely clear how solvable it is.
I do think the recent theoretical & technological advancements increase the value of *studying* poker relative to *playing* poker as a way to become more proficient. I doubt you can become +EV thru study alone but If you're someone like me who studies > plays, that's helpful.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
OK, folks, I have a pretty straightforward overview of where I think the Democratic race stands. 53eig.ht/2LMQkZm
The top tier is Biden, Harris and Warren. They're the ones who are both (i) polling fairly well right now and (ii) have the clearest path to maintain/expand their coalition.

Warren's behind the other two in endorsements, so I have her a tick behind them overall, but not by much.
It's a drop-off to 4th and 5th, which is Bernie & Buttigieg.

Bernie's position (~15% in polls with 100% name ID) is historically a losing one and the more you look under the surface (e.g. IA polls) the worse it gets.

Buttigieg's coalition (white, college edu) may be too narrow.
Read 5 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
I think McGrath has a shot.
McConnell has the worst approval ratings in the country. He will probably win on the basis of partisanship, especially with Trump turnout. But it's not a foregone conclusion and his status as party leader could give him problems that a "generic" Republican might not have.
It's gonna be one of those races where the polling could show a close race, but the fundamentals strongly favor McConnell and McConnell probably wins. But if you're not providing for, say, a 15-20% chance of McGrath winning, your mental and/or statistical model is overconfident.
Read 3 tweets

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Brian Cates
@drawandstrike
Oh good.

Can walk us through a FISA process where the Woods file doesn't need verifying as the former MI6 guy now being paid to be a political operative for the Hillary Clinton campaign is just such a nice guy, you can simply take his word for it?

Hi @AndrewCMcCarthy, this is @AshaRangappa_ . Asha, this is Andrew.

Andrew, Asha is advancing the claim that the FISA Court can eschew verification of allegations in a FISA warrant **if** the person who spoke to the actual 2nd & 3rd hand non-eyewitnesses is a "trusted source".
I seem to recall several columns Andrew wrote at @NRO where he explained at length and in great detail as a former prosecutor in terrorist cases where FISA warrants played a heavy role, just how absurd this claim is.
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Piyush Katariya
@AhamPiyush
@SadhguruJV

If your #body becomes very pleasant we call it a #pleasure

If your #mind becomes pleasant, we call it peace; if it becomes very pleasant we call it a #joy

If your #emotions become pleasant we call it a #love; if they become very pleasant we call it #compassion
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Alexander J.A Cortes
@AJA_Cortes
Body language isn’t mystical

It’s being perceptive, paying attention

Recognizing the link between mental state and physical state

“Read” body language always struck me as a misnomer
Humans naturally mirror and empathize with each other

Some people are intuitively good at this

Others are obtuse, they metaphorically blind to other people
There’s also the fallacy is non verbal communication is more important than verbal

The statistics around this are fallacious

Verbal communication is HIGHLY important

People obviously listen and pay attention to words
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Anne Hilborn
@AnneWHilborn
First Up Tonight we have #16 seeded Belo Horizonte Marmoset vs. #1 Harar Hyena! #2018MMM
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Black tufted marmosets (Callithrix penicillata) are small new world monkeys (about 1.5 stoats/350 g). They live in family groups of 4-14 individuals in central Brazil and forage for fruit, flowers, leaves, young stems, tree resin, and insects #2017MMM citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/downlo…
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Prof Darrel Francis ☺ Mk CardioFellows Great Again
@ProfDFrancis
Intention To Tweet
============

1. Why is intention-to-treat the ONLY right way to interpret trial results?
2. Why are these fine gentlemen wasting their prayers?

Tweetorial for cardiology fellows from ORBITA-HQ
#cardiology #meded #foamed
Thank you to Ali Jazayeri for suggesting this subject on the highly secret DM contact address (@ProfDFrancis).
At first I hesitated over whether this was truly needed amongst such an elite body of scienntific minds as we have reading this thread.

But Pascal Meier insisted that it was.
He said he was watching a whole session dedicated to not understanding this at a conference. Sent a pic!
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