Thread by @MentalNomadSays

Disclaimer: not investment advice!

Unpopular speculation: I have a hunch we'll see a bit of Bitcoin pullback this weekend & and a bit of an alt rally. Why? A thread.

Weekday traders don't like to go home long on Friday. They tend to go to cash, so there's a Friday downdraft.

The also trade Bitcoin more heavily than other assets.

Weekend speculators feel differently - they trade a lot of alts, and trade on weekends. On the other hand, they're less likely to trade fundamentals, and more likely to trade on TA setups.

So if Bitcoin backs off for the weekend, we'll probably see weekend speculators amplify the pullback towards $9000. I consider this a healthy pullback, not bearish.

Bitcoin (BTC) is doing great 💪and I'm super-bullish for the year.

Meanwhile, a lot of alts show TA setups for gains after recent rises (or so I hear from folks who are into TA.)

TA traders are likely to take funds out of BTC as it pulls back and go into alts with it, leading to an alt run - which TA traders will pile into. It's what they do.

And the markets and kinda primed for this. Here's BTC out-performing the top-10 (by market cap) cryptos. (Charts from Bitwise: bitwiseinvestments.com/indexes) This is the past 30 days.

Here's BTC versus the Mid-Cap 20 - that's 11th through 30th in market cap. You can see the long-term correlation, but you can also see the recent divergence - in the past 7 days.

The Bitwise 70 Small-Cap Index (31st through 100th) tells the same story - Bitcoin outperformed lately.

It looks to me like an alt run is primed, and natural weekend effects are likely to kick it off. We'll see what happens.

Disclosure: this is not investment advice. It's personal observation. I don't trade. I HODL. I hold BTC and some alts, including BTG.

Enjoy your weekend!

@threadreaderapp - unroll this, please? :)