0/ We're excited to release our first "State of #Bitcoin" report. Read it in full here!
delphidigital.io/bitcoin
delphidigital.io/bitcoin
1/ In its current state, $BTC is easier to dismiss than understand. In this extensive report, we discuss the long-term potential of the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency and the key obstacles it must overcome on its path towards wider acceptance and adoption. 
2/ We believe the primary long-term value drivers for $BTC revolve around its ability to serve as 1) a censorship-resistant store of value and 2) a "check" on governments as an alternative, country-agnostic digital reserve currency.
3/ Bitcoin, as it operates today, has much to prove if it is to become a trusted store of value, but even given its relatively short history it does offer a number of benefits to gold and fiat already (table inspired by "The Bullish Case for Bitcoin" by @real_vijay).
4/ One notable use case is the amount of private wealth stored in offshore bank accounts (estimated at ~$8 trillion today). If $BTC were to capture a fraction of the demand for offshore wealth storage it would imply significant upside potential from current price levels.
5/ Investible gold and central bank gold reserves also represent additional opportunities for bitcoin, though the latter may take longer to materialize given the elevated volatility of $BTC. We expect this to trend lower over time, however.
6/ In the near-term, recent trends in #bitcoin holder activity coupled with the rapid decline in price suggests a bottom is more likely to form in Q1 2019, barring any major fundamental changes (our analysis builds off extensive work and data provided by @unchainedcap).
7/ Incorporating the NTV Signal (created by @Kalichkin as a modified version of the popular NTV ratio introduced by @woonomic & @cburniske) we identify patterns of leading buy/sell signals over the last few major bull runs.
8/ For example, using 140 and 50 as key trigger points in the NVT Signal, we see a stark difference in subsequent returns for $BTC following a break above or below these thresholds.
9/ There are several caveats to using NVTS going forward (difficulties in estimating on-chain transaction volume, exclusion of off-chain txn's, changes in coin velocity) but we do not believe scaling solutions in their current state are drastically influencing this indicator.
10/ The maturation of #bitcoin, driven largely by the gradual adoption among both individual and institutional participants, should suppress volatility over time, allowing $BTC to function as a reliable MoE, especially in developing markets threatened by excess inflation.
11/ The lack of accessibility to financial services is a key drag on growth in some emerging or frontier economies. Mobile phone penetration and access to banking alternatives will continue to grow, widening the potential size of Bitcoin users.
12/ This is not to say Bitcoin doesn't face significant risks on its way to becoming a trusted store of value and recognized medium of exchange (we discuss a number of these throughout the report as well).
13/ We also discuss scaling solutions, the potential of lightning network, and regulatory risks facing Bitcoin.
14/ Disclaimer: It is important for us to stress that nothing in this report is intended to be taken as investment advice of any kind. Everyone should do their own due diligence before making any investment decision.
15/ Thank you to everyone who provided feedback and insight as we put this together, including @MustStopMurad @hasufl @CryptoQF @MartyBent. You can read the full report here and please don't hesitate to reach out to our team with any feedback!
delphidigital.io/bitcoin
delphidigital.io/bitcoin
