Thread by @alexcobham

It is not right how excited I am about our conference next week - check the #tjn19 programme with summaries of each paper here
taxjustice.net/tjn19-programm…

Still excited. #tjn19 tomorrow!

And... we're off! #tjn19 is now livestreaming taxjustice.net/tjn19/

The full conference booklet is available to download at taxjustice.net/wp-content/upl…

Speaker details and extended paper summaries are available too airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

First plenary session moderated by @deepa_driver, underway with @ArjanReurink presenting a joint paper with @javiergb_com: 'Competing with whom, for what, and how: The great fragmentation of the firm, FDI attraction profiles & structure of international tax competition in the EU'

Paper analyses the features of EU countries that attract intermediate holding companies, and the types of FDI that result - a deep dive into the ways that EU states undermine each others' corporate tax base #tjn19

Full paper at osf.io/preprints/soca…

The second #tjn19 paper is by @terezapalanska, on 'Reaction of multinationals to changes in transfer pricing regulations'. Really interesting paper that I had the pleasure of seeing Tereza present at #DSA2019

https://twitter.com/alexcobham/status/1142074846752452609

Palanska analyses the extent to which successive waves of US transfer pricing regulations affected the tendency of multinationals to declare profit in low-tax jurisdictions (short answer: only short term effects) #tjn19

Extended summary: airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

Third speaker #tjn19 is @TaxJusticeNet's own Lucas Millan, presenting joint work from our new Corporate Tax Haven Index, looking at the pattern of tax treaties of different African coutries: 'Building the enablers' playground: Tax treaty aggressiveness and its drivers'

Millán addresses the recurrent myth that tax treaties tend to increase FDI: the evidence is mixed at best, and per IMF, treaties tend to impose significant revenue losses. A continuing race to the bottom in withholding rates has exacerbated this over last 35 years #tjn19

One of the 20 indicators of the Corporate Tax Haven Index uses bilateral treaty data to calculate comparable measures of the aggressiveness of countries in their treaty network, according to how low they have pushed the withholding rates #tjn19

Top ten jurisdictions, by relative aggressiveness of tax treaties:
UAE
Mauritius
France
Zambia
UK
Qatar
China
Kuwait
South Africa
Saudi Arabia
#tjn19

Overall, Millán's results from the Corporate Tax Haven Index show that high-income countries are by far the most aggressive in imposing revenue losses on African countries. Very hard to square with any rhetoric about OECD members' commitments to fighting poverty #tjn19

Final speaker in the opening plenary is @DanHaberly, with the forthcoming Atlas of Offshore Investment - a searing critique of the weaknesses of *all* the current FDI data, and a revolutionary approach to generate a new database of bilateral direct investment

The Atlas covers nine major economies so far: the BRICs, US, UK, France, Germany and Italy. Extraordinary levels of round-tripping are uncovered (e.g. China's round-tripping alone is almost as big as *all* FDI into the US, c.$1 trillion

Very different patterns by country - e.g. more than half of China's round-tripping is by state-owned enterprises, while Russia's is dominated by a handful of oligarchs. China round-tripping dominated by Taiwan: 25-50% of Taiwan's GDP, as vs 6% (per the official data)
#tjn19

US round-tripping is dominated by corporate inversions (of which 'invert to Ireland, return to US via Luxembourg' is the dominant pattern, with US pharma companies the main actors) #tjn19

The UK is a dominant player - through its offshore network and also in its own right - as well as being highly exposed itself to round-tripping. (Biter bit - the inevitable result of pursuing a role in international financial engineering?) #tjn19

An innovation this year: we're taking a few minutes at the end of each panel for people to discuss their questions, reactions with each other, before a formal Q&A. We're also using slido for questions in the room and online, via slido.com/j928 (room B200) #tjn19

Now back to the #tjn19 panel for questions - to Palanská on changes in US transfer pricing and on the arm's length price; to Millán on the trends of tax treaties, and on why countries would agree to bad treaties (role of lobbying, uncertainty over impacts...)

Qs to Reurink on changes over time (not in their paper which is latest data only, but would be interesting); and on Fr, Ger (still attracting FDI, but less successful than would expect in the specific types examined here) #tjn19

Great #tjn19 q to @DanHaberly: how does the world's FDI look if we remove round-tripping? 'Boring! US huge, everyone else quite small - UK 2nd, Taiwan 3rd (but this highly uncertain estimate)'

Discussion in #tjn19 room focuses now on the implications of the various papers for the theory of the firm (q raised by @atulkshah) - how much are structures and 'investment' driven by real economic factors, and how much by regulatory arbitrage?

Daniel Mayrit, a Spanish artist, tells #tjn19 about the art exhibition - linking the London riots of 2011, and the stigmatisation of those involved, to a different representation of policymakers and bankers from the global financial crisis

First #tjn19 parallel session, panels on gender and equality; on regional financial secrecy issues; and the one I'll tweet from, on experiences with anti-avoidance strategies. Our board member @cathycross is moderating papers from @FrankKalizinje, @AniyieIfeanyic1 & @goelshilpa4

Here's some of the exhibition at #tjn19 - famous faces from the crisis, represented as many rioters were

And the story behind it #tjn19

Broke the thread, sorry - picking up from here

https://twitter.com/alexcobham/status/1145999233738313729

Great first paper from @FrankKalizinje of the Malawian tax authority, on 'the feasibility of Malawi developing a legislation on corporate criminal liability to strengthen the tax law' - highlighting importance of penalties for the enablers of tax crimes airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

Second speaker on this panel is Ifeanyichukwu Azuka Aniyie, @AniyieIfeanyic1, of the Nigerian bar, tax authority, and University of Pretoria, on 'Tax intermediaries management: A review of three jurisdictions' airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

The recommendation is 'that registration and licencing of tax intermediaries (favoured by Kenya and South Africa) and the institutionalisation of a reporting regime (favoured by South Africa & recommended by the OECD/G20 in its BEPS Action 12 report) be adopted in Nigeria' #tjn19

Shilpa Goel, tax lawyer at the Indian Supreme Court @goelshilpa4 now addressing the threat of tax avoidance and evasion to the very constitution of India - and the importance of mandatory disclosure by intermediaries airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO… #tjn19

Reminder that you can join the #tjn19 discussion at slido.com/j928 - for this session, choose room BG03

https://twitter.com/JasonBraganza1/status/1146007225921671170

https://twitter.com/JasonBraganza1/status/1146006816989560833

Fascinating discussion now - @SolPicciotto making the case that advisors and intermediaries deliberate create the 'grey' areas, rather than these just being there, and so the need for transparency regulation that seeks to tighten

After lunch, we're back in plenary at #tjn19 for a key session on 'Accountants as enablers'

Livestreaming at taxjustice.net/tjn19/

Moderated by @markusmeinzer, and the first presenter is Lena Adjacic of the University of Lausanne, @LAjdacic, addressing 'The Wealth Defence Industry' - to what extent are accountancy firms the key players? #tjn19

The paper goes beyond the earlier study (Jones/Temouri/Cobham) on the role of the big four accounting firms in promoting tax haven use... taxjustice.net/2017/11/13/big… #tjn19

This paper runs multivariate regressions and finds a broader range of effects of big four firms - not just haven use, but more holding and management subsidiaries #tjn19
airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

Second presenter is @javiergb_com of @UvACORPNET (joint paper with @thesailaway_CPH) on 'Now You See Me: Geography of professional tax services' airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

The concentration of tax professionals is something else! #tjn19

And splendidly, the slides are available here
slides.com/jgarciab/tjn19…
#tjn19

Last presenter of this #tjn19 plenary is @atulkshah, prof @ City U, on the urgent need to reform entirely the way people are educated in accounting and finance airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

What would a 'just' education system for accounting and finance look like? #tjn19

An aside: @javiergb_com is missing @phdskat at #tjn19. 😢

Vigorous discussions in the room #tjn19, now back for the Q&A. Don't forget you can join in on slido.com/j928.

Questions focusing on regression results (@LAjdacic v robust!); and on the future of accounting (@AlexJacobs16 asks: how can we take this forward?)

.@atulkshah gives a big shout out to @spiderswebfilm, a £4k film from Michael Oswald on the UK and its tax haven network, which has been shown at festivals around the world, and now has the best part of two million views online

.@deepa_driver talks to her experience setting up a master's course for financial regulators, and highlights the value of solidarity networks; engaging more critical speakers in education (e.g. tax justice speakers, to erode 'cognitive regulatory capture' of regulators) #tjn19

Great questions from @ecuarauz: can we start to re-conceive of accounting as a public good? And from @TomJLines: students who rejected economics that couldn't explain the financial crisis have lead a resurgence - we can do this in accounting too #tjn19

#tjn19 @RichardJMurphy highlights the new Corporate Accountability Network, launching next Friday at the Institute of Chartered Accountants, and aiming to bring accounting back into the social sphere

#tjn19 @atulkshah emphasises there is hope - from the work of tax justice movement, to the growing willingness to regulate in some places, e.g. India considering banning the big four from audit work

I've joined the parallel session on financial secrecy, with Ronen Palan moderating papers by @petr_jansky, Moran Harari and Leo Ahrens #tjn19
airtable.com/shrmOimd7cA0YO…

Petr's paper brings together data from every edition of the Financial Secrecy Index @FinclSecrecyInd since 2009, to explore changes over time.

First key result: the intensity of global financial secrecy has on average decreased, by 10%+ from 2011 to 2018

Result 2: the fall in secrecy mainly comes from improved international standards and cooperation (one of four main types of financial secrecy identified by the Financial Secrecy Index)... #tjn19

Result 3: the UAE, Netherlands and Malta have become more important providers of financial secrecy over the period - although still much less than top 3 (Switzerland, United States or Cayman Islands). #tjn19

Moran Harari presenting #tjn19 joint paper with @TaxJusticeNet colleagues, 'The state of play of beneficial ownership registration: a visual overview'. Despite progress over the last few years, no country is near perfect transparency - and most are very far from it

Leo Ahern (U. Bamberg and, like Moran, @COFFERSEU) presents analysis of 'The big bang: Tax evasion after automatic exchange of information under FATCA and CRS' (joint with Fabio Bothner) #tjn19

(In fact every one of the presenters, and the moderator, in this session are part of the @COFFERSEU project - it's a great project!) #tjn19

Key finding: there would be 67% more household assets in 'tax havens' without automatic exchange of information... [but ...] #tjn19

Caveats: this doesn't mean there was a 67% decrease, but that under reasonable assumptions there would be 67% more than now; and in addition, results only relate to directly attributable assets (not indirectly held, of which many) #tjn19

Interesting range of questions around the details of secrecy indicators and asset data #tjn19, and a number of queries around the robustness of the last finding on effectiveness of OECD information exchange

One coffee break later, and we're back with the last plenary of the day, in which @michaelpmdavis moderates policy presentations from @AnaGomesMEP @margarethodge and @duncanhames #tjn19
Questions welcome at slido.com/j928

.@AnaGomesMEP addresses #tjn19 on the conflicts between 'national competence' and European Commission leadership on tax; and the 20(!) EU member states that were selling residence, one way or another

The Commission found that EU members' golden visa rules, including in Portugal, are a systemic risk to security (Schengen), and of tax evasion. And a right wing government introduced the scheme, a socialist government left it in place - @AnaGomesMEP #tjn19

'I do not even address the immorality of giving golden visas, while denying rights to immigrants' - @AnaGomesMEP #tjn19

#tjn19 @margarethodge begins by very kindly thanking @TaxJusticeNet for all our work, and noting that it is the combination of civil society and parliamentary pressure that has made all the difference

'The thing that has shocked me is how Britain has become the jurisdiction of choice for so much dirty money - partly because governments from both sides wanted to attract investment' - @margarethodge #tjn19

'Britain's role in [tax evasion and money laundering] is immense... and particularly through the family of territories' - @margarethodge #tjn19

'The UK network is made up of tiny places with tiny populations, and financial services rule the roost' - @margarethodge #TJN19. Previous UK intervention on Isle of Man (re: Radio Caroline) gave precedent for government action in the Crown Dependencies

Now @duncanhames of TI outlining the major weaknesses of UK company regulation, including Companies House register of ownership etc of companies. Last year TI found 776 UK companies involved in c.£80bn of fraud #tjn19

It's good that UK government committed to public registers of property ownership by last year - but it hasn't happened yet. Parliamentary scrutiny has passed, cross-party support exists; need legislation from government asap #tjn19

.@duncanhames #tjn19: a UK property register would form a mini-register of e.g. Jersey company ownership, since so many hold UK property. Need data that's free to use, machine-readable, fully public etc

'Police often describe professional services firms as the "first line of defence against money laundering"' - @duncanhames #tjn19

Into Q&A - first up, @margarethodge on how to limit the power of the big 4 firms. Mentions separating audit from consultancy; & dominance of big 4 in government panels ('any other area of policy development would have a far wider range of people/interests - scandalous') #tjn19

'What absolutely shocked me about the big 4 was their willingness [at the Public Accounts Committee] to be economical with the truth' - @margarethodge #tjn19

'We're winning battles against corruption, but we're not winning the war. We've been sliding back for some time from confidence in the ability to establish and sustain a rules-based system' - @duncanhames #tjn19

'Transparency isn't enough on its own. We need enforcement, and we need cultural change. People in society who can own different standards about how we operate' #tjn19

'When we started this work, there was a feeling it was cool to avoid tax. That's changed, and that's down to your work and ours' - @margarethodge #tjn19

'TAXE 3 calls for gradual abolition of golden visa schemes, but nothing will happen unless there is scrutiny, exposure of money laundering and crimes... And sorry, the big 4 here are practising organised crime!' - @AnaGomesMEP #tjn19

'We don't need Brexit for Singapore-on-Thames. It's already here!' - @AnaGomesMEP #tjn19

'I hope the EU will have the common sense to impose rules in any trade deal that prevent the UK really pursuing the tax haven model' - @margarethodge #tjn19

'There's a lot of concern in the EU about the UK going rogue... that might lead EU to join a [worse] race to the bottom, or to get its act together and implement e.g. FTT, CCCTB, minimum CIT, CBCR etc' - @AnaGomesMEP #tjn19

Our evening event #tjn19 has begun - with the inaugural @TaxJusticeNet lecture, delivered by Prof @SolPicciotto in the Great Hall @CityUniLondon, on the past present and future of the international tax rules

I'm not going to tweet the #tjn19 lecture, but we'll publish it later - livestreaming taxjustice.net/tjn19/