Democrats won The Ossoff Seat.
Here's how we rate the remaining uncalled races. In several of these, there are concessions but no official @ABC or AP call:
Solid D (>=95%)—CA-48, CA-49, WA-8
Likely D (~85%)—NM-2, UT-4
Lean D (~65%)—CA-10, CA-39
Tossup (~50%)—CA-45, ME-2, NJ-3
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R—MN-1, NC-9
Solid D (>=95%)—CA-48, CA-49, WA-8
Likely D (~85%)—NM-2, UT-4
Lean D (~65%)—CA-10, CA-39
Tossup (~50%)—CA-45, ME-2, NJ-3
Lean R
Likely R
Solid R—MN-1, NC-9
Missed one: We're also rating TX-23, which has been called by some networks and not others, as Likely R.
Most likely, though, it will be the five in the middle, CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, ME-2 and NJ-3, that determine where we end up on the scale from D+35 to D+40.
Most likely, though, it will be the five in the middle, CA-10, CA-39, CA-45, ME-2 and NJ-3, that determine where we end up on the scale from D+35 to D+40.
NY-27 (Chris Collins) is another one where there's some disagreement on whether the race can be called. After looking at it, we're moving it to Likely R. The margin is ~2700 with ~10K absentees to be counted. Highly likely Collins wins but not 100% safe. bit.ly/2JSf9A8
Among the uncalled Senate races, we have Arizona as Lean R, Florida as Likely R, and the Mississippi special election also as Likely R.
Republicans will net 3 seats from Democrats if they win all 3.
Republicans will net 3 seats from Democrats if they win all 3.
We're also moving GA-7—another one where the networks differ—from "called R" to Likely R. The Dem trails by 900 votes here but there's 20K absentee votes still left to be counted. on-ajc.com/2AR3UVz
On the other side, we're also moving NY-22 from "called D" to Likely D. syracuse.com/politics/index…
Also follow Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) for more on the uncalled races beat. We're going to try to be a go-to source for you on this stuff.
We are moving Florida from Likely R to Lean R. The vote count keeps tightening and there's a big, weird issue regarding an undervote in Broward County.
Arizona goes from Lean R to Tossup. There's a case for Lean D here but there are also potential pockets of McSally strength that have yet to update their vote totals, so let's see where we are at the end of the evening.
Overall, though, we've gone from what looked like what looked like about D +33 House and R +3-4 Senate late Tuesday night to what now could wind up more like D +36-40 House and R +1-2 Senate. Probably enough to merit a reassessment.
CA-45, where Mimi Walters is losing ground very quickly as more ballots come in, goes from Tossup to Lean D.
Moving ME-2 from Tossup to Lean D. Exit poll suggests that Golden (D) is likely to pick up a clear majority of 3rd-party votes when they're reallocated as a result of Maine's new instant runoff voting law, probably putting him ahead of Poliquin (R). bit.ly/2OA4mLn
Arizona: Tossup --> Lean D. Sinema's ahead now, and the remaining vote doesn't look particularly good for McSally.
Here’s our current characterization of the uncalled Congressional races.
Solid D (>=95%): CA-48, CA-49, NM-2
Likely D (~85%): CA-10, NJ-3, NY-22, UT-4
Lean D (~65%): CA-39, CA-45, ME-2, AZ-Sen
Tossup (~50%):
Lean R: FL-Sen
Likely R: GA-7, NY-27, TX-23, MS-Sen (runoff)
Solid R:
Solid D (>=95%): CA-48, CA-49, NM-2
Likely D (~85%): CA-10, NJ-3, NY-22, UT-4
Lean D (~65%): CA-39, CA-45, ME-2, AZ-Sen
Tossup (~50%):
Lean R: FL-Sen
Likely R: GA-7, NY-27, TX-23, MS-Sen (runoff)
Solid R:
TBH, I think a lot of these are fairly conservative, i.e. could be pushed from “Lean” into “Likely” or “Solid”. But there’s been enough weirdness this year that it probably can’t hurt to be cautious. Also keeping an eye on whether any races in CA may have been called prematurely.
We've moved AZSen and FLSen to Likely D and Likely R, respectively. They were Lean D and Lean R before. There are uncertainties in both races, but more on the order of plausible-but-not-likely uncertainties than can't-tell-who-the-favorite-is uncertainies.
Even though both AP & all the networks called this race, we're moving CA-21 out of "called" R and into likely R as the race has suddenly tightened a lot. Trying to learn more about where there are remaining ballots outstanding.
Per @baseballot, we expect that the plurality of remaining ballots are in Fresno County, which Valadao (R) won on election day. But there are a lot of unknowns here, including how different late-counted ballots are from those counted on election night.
We think Valadao is the favorite; hence, the Likely R rating. But can this race be considered 99.5% safe or whatever threshold one uses to designate a "called" race? We'd say pretty clearly not based on the info we have so far.
As of early Wed. morning, Valadao (R) led ballots counted in Fresno Co. by 13 points. He's led ballots counted *since* then in Fresno Co. by just 2 points.
Cox (D) led the Kern Co. count on Election Night by 7 points. Ballots *since* then have come in for him by *27* points.
Cox (D) led the Kern Co. count on Election Night by 7 points. Ballots *since* then have come in for him by *27* points.
The real strength for Valadao is Kings Co., where he's led by 24 points in the post Election Night count so far. (He was ahead by 31 on 11/6.)
Cox's path is to breakeven in Fresno, and hope remaining Kern ballots outweigh Kings + Valadao's current lead. Not easy but not crazy.
Cox's path is to breakeven in Fresno, and hope remaining Kern ballots outweigh Kings + Valadao's current lead. Not easy but not crazy.
AZ-Sen officially called for Democrats by AP and @ABC. A big, somewhat narrative-altering win. Dems got the 2 GOP pickups they needed (AZ, NV) but will lose ground in the Senate because at least 3 of their incumbents lost.
We're monitoring UT-4, where a bunch of ballots from Utah County have brought Love (R) considerably closer to McAdams (D). Her problem is that ballots from Salt Lake County have not yet been added and are likely to be pretty blue. Sticking with 'Likely D'.
sltrib.com/news/politics/…
sltrib.com/news/politics/…
We're going to dial this back to "Lean D" from "Likely D". McAdams gained ground as some Salt Lake County ballots were reported, but his margins were not as wide as on Election Day and frankly it's not totally clear how much remaining vote is outstanding in which counties.
Right now, we're showing 169% of the total 2014 vote is in from (very red) Utah County, and 155% of the total 2014 vote is in from (blue) Salt Lake County. So that *might* be an indication that there's a longer way to go in Salt Lake than in Utah Co. But a LOT of unknowns here.
We're moving CA-10 from Likely D to Solid D, and CA-45, where Katie Porter has taken the lead over Mimi Walters, from Lean D to Likely D. We still have CA-39 at Lean D but that's pretty generous to Young Kim (R), whose lead is down to 0.4 points and keeps slipping.
Of the various long-shot uncalled races, GA-7 is among the most interesting. Bourdeaux (D) trails by ~500 and there are a few hundred provisionals to count. She probably can't pull ahead in regulation but a recount is likely. Keeping at Likely R but 👀. bit.ly/2Dmgbmr
To be clear, recounts themselves aren't all that interesting, and do not unto themselves imply all that much uncertainty about the outcome. Recounts where there are <=500 votes separating the candidates are a different story, however.
One of the least surprising of the uncalled races, but NJ-3 moves from Likely D to Solid D. (For those scoring at home, Solid D = essentially certain. Technically speaking, races only go to 100% "called" once our partners at ABC News project them.)
The most uncertain races at this point are:
ME-2—Golden (D) likely to go ahead once 2nd choices are counted, but that hasn't happened yet and there's a lawsuit.
UT-4—McAdams (D) is a slight favorite but tightened a lot. Not far from a tossup.
GA-7—Woodall (R) leads by ~500 votes.
ME-2—Golden (D) likely to go ahead once 2nd choices are counted, but that hasn't happened yet and there's a lawsuit.
UT-4—McAdams (D) is a slight favorite but tightened a lot. Not far from a tossup.
GA-7—Woodall (R) leads by ~500 votes.
If Cox (D) is winning Fresno County ballots by ~9 points, then CA-21, which most news organizations called for Valadao (R), is also very interesting. We're gonna stick with Likely R for now but this race shouldn't be considered called or safe R IMO.
Based on how the vote has been coming in *since* Thursday, e.g. with Cox actually winning Fresno, we'd guess that Cox would gain about ~500 additional votes once the vote is fully reported from all four counties in CD-21; he currently trails by ~1900.
But there are a lot of rough assumptions in that calculation, including in guesstimating how much CD-21 vote there is left from the overall country numbers. My guess (we don't have a formal model) is that Cox has maybe a 20-25% chance, right on the border of Lean R vs. Likely R.
New votes from Salt Lake County in UT-4. If I'm doing the math right, they show Love (R) gaining ~6300 votes and McAdams (D) gaining ~6000. Not good for McAdams, since this is a county where he won the Election Day vote. We're moving this race to Toss-Up. results.enr.clarityelections.com/UT/Salt_Lake/9…
There's a case for making this Lean R, but (i) there's a *lot* of precinct-level variation within Salt Lake Co., which makes these numbers harder to contextualize; (ii) Love sued to stop the vote count in Salt Lake Co. earlier today, which is a bit weird. charlotteobserver.com/news/nation-wo…
Back in CA-21, Valadao (R) wins a batch of ballots from his stronghold in Kings Co., but by a considerably smaller margin (14 points) than his previous ~30-point margin in the county. We're moving to Lean R from Likely R; today a bit scary for Valadao.
Valadao led by ~7.5% when the race was called for him a week ago; now the lead is down to ~2%. Still a LOT of uncounted ballots. This is clearly a case where the right thing to do journalistically is to un-call the race.
Young Kim (R) lead in CA-39 down to just 121 votes. In the LA-area districts, this really has been like clockwork with D's gaining with every update. I kinda feel bad for candidates who slowly see their lead slip away a couple of points at a time.
We moved CA-39 from Lean D to Likely D last night (not sure I remembered to notate that in this thread) so no further change in our rating here.
Looks like we'll get a result today in ME-2 as Poliquin's (R) attempt to halt counting of 2nd-choice votes was rejected. Maine uses instant-runoff voting. Based on exit polls, Golden (D) is the 2nd choice of most people who voted for independents.
Golden (D) indeed wins ME-2 by ~1 point after second choices are accounted for, the @MESecOfState says. This is a rural, Trump-y district and a good pickup for Dems. nyti.ms/2K6vhhm
We're currently projecting 39 Dem pickups, but there's a margin of error around around that with several other uncalled races. UT-4 and CA-21 in particular look highly uncertain at this stage. Could very easily wind up at 38, or at 40.
After UT-4 & CA-21, the next-most-interesting race is GA-7, where Bourdeaux (D) trails by ~500 votes (and that should tighten after more provisionals are counted) and will get a recount. So D's would hit 40 if they win 2 of those 3—though I'm not sure if they're favorites in any.
Here's a little Monte Carlo sim of the number of Dem pickups, based on my (admittedly subjective) assessment of the odds in each of the uncalled races. A 25% chance of 40+ seats, a 35% chance of 38 or fewer, and a 40% chance of 39 exactly. 
You'll notice I haven't written too much about FL-Sen in this thread; that's because I don't consider it especially suspenseful. We need to figure out what was up with that Broward Co. undervote; otherwise not clear how Nelson wins.
Going to Lean R in UT-4 as Love continues to outperform her Election Day vote in late-counted ballots. Opposite of most districts where the late vote has been more Democratic.
This is why we wouldn't characterize UT-4 as stronger than "leaning", however. Provisionals may be different than late-counted mail ballots.
Initial vote counting is apparently done in GA-7, with Woodall (R) ahead by 419 votes. The Democrat is likely to ask for a recount, and the margin is just close enough that the recount is worth watching. Stays at Likely R for now.
ajc.com/blog/politics/…
ajc.com/blog/politics/…
Cisneros finally pulled ahead in CA-39 as had seemed inevitable for some time. I guess we'll keep at Likely D for now until AP and/or ABC call it or the lead gets a little wider, but very hard to see Young Kim winning.
Speaking of inevitable, CA-45 has been called by the AP for Katie Porter (D). Won't really end up being that close. Goes into the Solid D category for us.
One of the fringier uncalled races is Chris Collins' NY-27. McMurray (D) seems to be outperforming his Election Day results in absentee ballots, but he'd have to outperform by a LOT to overcome Collins's ~3000 vote lead. We have this at Likely R. bit.ly/2TiLggK
We also have NY-22 uncalled, but in that race, the candidate who's already ahead, Brindisi (D), has done better in absentee votes so far than in the Election Night count. So there's not a lot working in favor of Tenney (R). bit.ly/2qQFzcS
Bad ballot design led to a lot of undervotes for Bill Nelson in Broward Co., possibly even enough to cost him his Senate seat. They do appear to be real undervotes, though, instead of tabulation errors. He doesn't really seem to have a path to victory.
ABC had already called this race for Brindisi (D), but we were being cautious because AP hadn't yet. It's pretty clear that it's over for Tenney (R). Moving out of Likely D into Called D.
Quick update on the remaining uncalled races, in order of most-uncertain to least-uncertain:
UT-4: McAdams (D) leads but has been losing ground quickly. Waiting for provisional ballots next week. You could make a case for several different ratings here; we have at Lean R.
UT-4: McAdams (D) leads but has been losing ground quickly. Waiting for provisional ballots next week. You could make a case for several different ratings here; we have at Lean R.
CA-21: Anyone who still has this race “called” is just being stubborn. I’d rather be Valadao (R) but it’s a hair-raising finish. Lean R.
GA-7: Likely to go to a recount with Woodall (R) ahead by ~420. Likely R.
GA-7: Likely to go to a recount with Woodall (R) ahead by ~420. Likely R.
NY-27: McMurray will have to do *very* well in absentee ballots in Erie Co. We’ll know about those next week. Not impossible but it's Likely R.
CA-39: Don’t really see a path for a Young Kim (R) comeback but for the *time being* it’s close, so I guess we'll keep at Likely D.
CA-39: Don’t really see a path for a Young Kim (R) comeback but for the *time being* it’s close, so I guess we'll keep at Likely D.
TX-23: There was some weirdness in Medina Co. here earlier and might go to a recount but Hurd probably narrowly survived. Likely R.
FL-Sen: I guess we’ll wait for one of the networks to call it but not sure how Nelson has a path. Likely R and maybe should be Solid R.
FL-Sen: I guess we’ll wait for one of the networks to call it but not sure how Nelson has a path. Likely R and maybe should be Solid R.
NM-2: Was wrongly called for Herrell (R) by some networks on Election Night but unless there’s something we’re unaware of, it's over and she lost and it's not really even all *that* close. Solid D.
We might have gotten a little trigger-happy in moving UT-4 to Lean R. We'll see what Utah Co. reports, where Love (R) will regain ground, and reassess.
We haven't been tracking gov races in this thread but @ABC just called GA-Gov for Brian Kemp (R) after Abrams's sort-of-concession. A close race in a state that's becoming more purple but also a bit of a tease for Democrats. But it's not *that* close to the runoff threshold.
So, this new batch of ballots from Fresno Co., which went for Valadao (R) on election night, just went to Cox (D) by 19 points (!). Moving from Lean R to Tossup.
Here's a breakdown of votes counted through Thursday AM of last week and votes counted *since* then. Major improvement for Cox in every county in late-counted votes. Not sure who I'd rather be. AP & networks still have this race *called* for Valadao, which is inarguably wrong.
Meanwhile, Love (R) has semi-expectedly taken the lead in UT-4 as further mail ballots counted in Utah Co. The late-counted mail ballots were very good for her, but what's left now is provisionals, which are a different ballgame. We'll hold at Lean R.
I wrote upthread that I could see an argument for a lot of different characterizations in UT-4. Guess I feel more emphatically now that "Lean R" is the "right" call. Love's narrowly ahead but we don't know how the provisionals are going to break and there are quite a few of them.
This is another really bad report for Valadao (R). Kings Co. was supposed to be his stronghold. Only won the latest batch of ballots by ~3.5 points in a county he won by >30 in the election night count.
The issue for Valadao (R) is that Kern Co. hasn't reported in a while, and we suspect there are about ~6K uncounted ballots there, which would net out to a 1,500-2,000 vote gain for Cox (D), almost erasing Valadao's current districtwide lead.
If Valadao is merely treading water in the other counties then 😬. Not that he's an underdog necessarily but would project to be verrrry close.
ABC has not projected this race (CA-39) yet, but we're moving to Solid D on the basis of the AP call. Democrats won all the tossup races in California and might still pull off a big upset in CA-21 on top of that.
FL-Sen moves to Solid R.
Do note, however, that Nelson actually picked up a fair number of votes, and this is within the margin where bad ballot design in Broward Co. maybe cost him the election.
Update on UT-4. The good news for Love (R) is that her lead has expanded. The bad news is that what's left to count is almost all from Democratic-leaning Salt Lake Co., and mostly provisional ballots at that.
This last batch of ballots actually wasn't especially great for Love, given that they came from very red Utah Co. Tends to confirms our view that this is a "Lean R" race, and not "Likely R".
Ortiz Jones (D) conceded to Hurd (R) in TX-23, which ABC News had called but AP hadn't; we're going to remove this from Likely R and treat it as called for the GOP. Hurd is a rare survivor in a Clinton district, though the race tightened a lot at the end.
Democrats are currently at 38 pickups and have 4 remaining opportunities to pick up an additional seat or two.
CA-21 (Valadao): We rate as a Tossup
UT-4 (Love): Lean R
GA-7 (Woodall): Likely R
NY-27 (Collins): Likely R
CA-21 (Valadao): We rate as a Tossup
UT-4 (Love): Lean R
GA-7 (Woodall): Likely R
NY-27 (Collins): Likely R
OK, I find this pretty convincing on UT-4. So we're going to put it back in the Tossup bucket.
Basically, McAdams (D) only needs to do somewhat better in the remaining votes from Salt Lake Co. than in the Election Night count to catch Love (R). (cont...)
bit.ly/2DNLRCe
Basically, McAdams (D) only needs to do somewhat better in the remaining votes from Salt Lake Co. than in the Election Night count to catch Love (R). (cont...)
bit.ly/2DNLRCe
…and there's some reason to think he WILL do that. What's left are provisional ballots and same-day registrants (new voters who registered on 11/6). In Utah Co., those ballots were quite a bit bluer than the previously-counted ones. If same is true in Salt Lake, it's very close.
Cox wins a new batch of ballots from Kern Co., his stronghold, by 40 points, bringing his overall margin against Valadao within 1 point.
It looks like that was only about half of what was left in Kern Co. So if there's another batch like this, Cox would pull slightly ahead.
Nathaniel Rakich (@baseballot) estimates about 4900 more ballots in Fresno, 2800 from Kern, 2300 from Kings, 800 from Tulare. *If* those estimates are right and votes come in the way they've come in since election day, we wind up with a margin of <=100 votes.
The most recent updates have Cox (D) over-performing his *overall* post-election numbers (which are already pretty good) by about ~5 points, however, perhaps because they contain a larger share of provisionals. If that trend continues, he'd eventually pull ahead by ~500 votes.
Looks like McAdams (D) netted 2,255 votes in Salt Lake Co. just now. results.enr.clarityelections.com/UT/Salt_Lake/9…
McAdams (D) now leads Mia Love (R) and there isn't really supposed to be a lot left out there to count. We're moving this race to Likely D for now.
Democrats are about even-money right now to wind up with *40* or more House seats. Unless there's something we don't know about, it looks like they'll win UT-4, bringing their floor to 39. CA-21 is a Tossup. Then they have outside chances in GA-7 and NY-27
This is really like 39.6, but rounding up 👀
In NY-27, McMurray is making it a bit tighter against Chris Collins, but not improving at the pace he needs to overtake him or really all that close to it. We'll keep as Likely R rather than Solid R but it's on the solid side of Likely R.
We're moving this to Called R. Chris Collins survives by the skin of his teeth. Massively underperformed district partisanship so the scandal mattered quite a bit. Possibly will be the first special election of the 2020 cycle.
And we're moving UT-4 to Solid D. That leaves CA-23 and GA-7 as the only unresolved House races, as far as we're concerned.
We're getting down to the finish line here! The GA-7 recount is complete, and Woodall (R) held on. CA-23 is the only uncalled race and will determine whether Democrats wind up with 39 or 40 pickups.
We're moving CA-23 to **Lean D**. Obviously going to be very close, but these late ballot updates keep coming in on pace with what Cox (D) would eventually need to win by a couple tenths of a point.
We'd guess about 3K ballots left in Kern Co.—probably not reporting until next week—which should be very good for Cox. Likely likely also another 2.5K in Fresno, which should be decent for him. Valadao (R) should gain some back in Kings Co, though only 1750 ballots left there.
The @AP and most of the networks still have this race called for Valadao, which is just super lazy (and that's about the nicest thing I can say about it). Should have been uncalled 10 days ago.
Running a little behind here but Cox (D) has pulled ahead in CA-23 and we've moved from Lean D to Likely D. Pretty bad that AP and others treated this as a called race for Valadao (R) until just now when it's been clear for 2 weeks that Cox could win.
Kings Co., which voted strongly for Valadao (R) on election night, just gave *Cox* (D) more votes instead, putting him further ahead. And Kings is done counting ballots, so it's hard to see where else Valadao will gain ground. Valadao is probably toast.
That means Democrats, in all probability, are going to finish with a net gain of 4️⃣0️⃣ House seats.
