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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
Yet again you keep trying to solve a problem of humans with mere bureaucratic posture.
There's no point playing fantasy Brexit because nobody is asking you to solve it. The people who have to solve Brexit are the DUP, the Conservative Party, Parliament, Ireland and the European Union.
"But I've worked out my little Englishman's Brexit in my back bedroom. Why does no one want it?"

Because why the fuck would they? Who the fuck do you represent?
If you put a border in Ireland you won't get a withdrawal agreement, and the government's going to collapse.

If you put a border in the Irish Sea, you lose the DUP and the government's going to collapse.
You keep banging your head off the walls, round and round and round.
This problem has no solution. You're not going to solve it with a Pooterish Brexit in your little lunchtime.
The Conservative Party lost its majority two years ago, and I think they're still having a bit of a psychological problem coming to terms with that.
They haven't got the votes. They can't get Brexit through and they can't survive without it.
I think a lot of middle aged Englishmen are having a great deal of trouble coming to terms with the fact they can't have something they want.

Welcome to planet earth. Now grow the fuck up.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
This might surprise you

Parliament will be fully working for nine days between now and October 7th.
Nothing happens until the new Tory leader. 2 days later it's summer holidays.

Then 7 days in September, and then they're off for party conferences until October 7th

A total of 9 working days between now and October 7th
And you think we're going to leave the European Union on one of those nine days. It won't be the day before summer, and it'll be Queen's speech in September
Read 7 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
It's very likely that the new Tory leader is going to call a general election the day after being elected.

It's a hell of a risk, but it's going to go downhill so fast for them if they don't.
Say there's no election. Parliament goes into recess on Thursday 25th July

There's the Radnor by election in August, so they might come back on September 3rd with no majority at all.
And then they've got to present a Queen's speech the first week in September. And even if that gets through, parliament is off again straight away for conferences until October 7th.
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
because you all live in this permanent reflex of horror, when there is absolutely no need for it. Every five fuckin minutes your sky is falling in.
Nobody is going anywhere before November. That's at the very earliest. Nobody is going anywhere before that.
But you keep going off like we're going to leave in the next five minutes.
And day after day you're just not taking any of this information in.
The Article 50 extension doesn't expire until November, see. And the only way to cut that short is by ratifying the withdrawal agreement, which parliament has refused.
Read 9 tweets

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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So @Jeremy_Hunt makes the 'good cop' gambit for #Brexit in his @BBCr4today interview with @bbcnickrobinson - can that work? Mmmm. It is interesting. Thread /1
@Jeremy_Hunt @BBCr4today @bbcnickrobinson Hunt's first point correct: the EU stopped giving concessions in Dec-April because it had no confidence that it would get May over the line. Why make concessions for nothing?

So might a new (more moderate) PM make a difference? /2
@Jeremy_Hunt @BBCr4today @bbcnickrobinson This is clearly Hunt's contention - he'll be less scary to the EU than the 'populist' (as EU has them) @DominicRaab @BorisJohnson and so the EU might be more accommodating.

And indeed, such a position does throw up potentially awkward optics for the EU /3
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Peter Foster
@pmdfoster
So. IDS and fellow Brexiteers are back punting the Malthouse compromise...and @theresa_may has "reluctantly" agreed to look again per @tnewtondunn
@nick_gutteridge

thesun.co.uk/news/brexit/89…

Totally mad? Well IDS makes one good point. A quick #Brexit thread.
@theresa_may @tnewtondunn @nick_gutteridge First, lets take the 'totally mad' approach... which @Jack_Blanchard_ sums up rather beautifully here. And on the idea of a negotiation in three weeks, he's totally right.

So where does IDS have a point? /2
@theresa_may @tnewtondunn @nick_gutteridge @Jack_Blanchard_ It's here, in the highlighted portion of the Sun story - it's the dirty open secret about the Irish backstop (hugely overlooked in Brussels and Dublin) which is that in practice, it's hard to see how it gets implemented. /3
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The Leave Alliance
@LeaveHQ
1. It may be an unpopular opinion, but the PM trying her best to avoid crashing out without a deal is no bad thing. She is making every effort to get her deal through - and suboptimal though it may be, it gets the ball rolling on a managed withdrawal process.

#Brexit
2. Nobody wants a long delay, least of all @theresa_may because it damages her party, but she knows (as do all grown ups) that dropping out without a deal would be a major blow to the economy and a massive political failure. One that could hand the keys to Number 10 to Corbyn.
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Ross Atkin
@rossatkin
Really sorry of you aren’t interested in Brexit but, well me, my friends and family have to live it and things are getting pretty fluid right now, so I wanted to pull some facts together about Facebook and the referendum that are worth bearing in mind. Thread! 👇
People like @Anna_Soubry and @ChukaUmunna have been making a good case for @peoplesvote_uk based on the idea that in the original ref people didn’t know what kind of Brexit they were voting for. This makes sense because some people voted leave expecting to stay in SM etc 1/
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Simon Cox
@SimonFRCox
UK is heading for #Brexit In Name Only. And maybe the slow, spasmodic death of British nationalism. Thread.
I’ve never believed UK & EU would agree terms on a new - indefinite - relationship. There’s a chasm between EU’s position & UK rhetoric 2/
Conservative Party backed EU for 50 years. Most grandees, funders and MPs still believe UK would do very badly if it left SM. Financial Times & Treasury agree 3/
Read 31 tweets
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Pete North
@PeteNorth303
1. Fishing was always going to be a big row in #Brexit because its one of the most emotive - touching on matters of territory, identity, heritage and sovereignty - but especially because it was one of the most visible symbols of what was done to the UK without consent.
2. Effectively the EU in conjunction with the British government did to the fisherman what Mrs T is said to have done to the miners. Anyone alive at the time will have vivid memories of family boats at the wreckers. It left a deep economic and emotional scar on coastal towns.
3. Consequently it attracts a lot more political runtime than it should, and the fishing lobby are expert at playing the victim. Possibly they are the most politically overindulged constituency there is because they are totemic for eurosceptics.
Read 20 tweets

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