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Staedtler
@Staedtler
, 7 tweets, 1 min read Read on Twitter
This might surprise you

Parliament will be fully working for nine days between now and October 7th.
Nothing happens until the new Tory leader. 2 days later it's summer holidays.

Then 7 days in September, and then they're off for party conferences until October 7th

A total of 9 working days between now and October 7th
And you think we're going to leave the European Union on one of those nine days. It won't be the day before summer, and it'll be Queen's speech in September
Brexit will not be decided until parliament resumes on October 7th

And the government still has no working majority, so all that happens is parliament dissolves for a general election.
I'm going to make one of my all time predictions. Because I've just realised something.

Parliament is never going to have another vote on Brexit.
I don't think so, because I can't see when this vote could possibly happen.
It's not going to happen in the two days before summer.
It's not going to happen during Queen's speech week.
It's not going to happen during conference season.
And it'll be a general election after that
Brexit is going to be resolved by the manifestos in a general election this autumn. It will never be brought back to a mere vote in parliament.

Brexit is never going to happen.
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More from @Staedtler see all

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
I keep saying June when I mean July, and I wish I wouldn't do that.

Sorry. What we're looking out for on JULY 25th is the formal notice of prorogation.
And if that's what happens, and I imagine it will, then Brexit is, as near as dammit, certain to never happen
Because once prorogued Parliament can only be opened again with a Queen's speech. And that will either fail to get through or be amended to include a referendum.

And if it fails to get through, it's an election with manifestos, and a referendum.
Oh yes, and if Parliament is not prorogued it means the session never ends and nothing parliament has already voted on this last two years can be put back to another vote.

Including the withdrawal agreement
Read 3 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
I think I know what's going to happen.

The new Tory leader takes over on July 23rd, like you said.

Two days later on June 25th, parliament goes on holiday for the summer

This is now a very interesting date.
Usually parliament would be prorogued at this point. As we've seen, that's just the formal ending of one parliamentary session.

We've had a two year parliament, so what should happen is a formal notice of prorogation is given on June 25th
And this is the thing to look out for.

If the new Tory leader gives a formal notice of prorogation on June 25th, then we know Brexit won't happen.
Read 7 tweets
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Staedtler
@Staedtler
I understand now.
It turns out I've been confused about some of this stuff all along. I thought parliaments just ended by themselves.

No. No.
A parliament is the period between two general elections. I know that part.

And I thought a session was the period between two Queen's speeches. But no. You were right and I was wrong.

A "session" is the period between the state opening at one end, and prorogation at the other.
That's what I mean. I thought each parliamentary session had a fixed date and then just ended by themselves.

Apparently, just as a session has to be formally opened with a Queen's speech, so it also has to be formally closed by prorogation.
Read 6 tweets

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Phil Syrpis
@syrpis
Lots of chat already today about the extension of the Article 50 period. Let me add to that, by trying to set out what is at stake. Thread. 1/
As things stand, the extension, subject to a review later this month, ends on October 31. The UK leaves with or without the WA on that date, unless it chooses to revoke A50 before that. 2/
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ooj
@SkidRowRadio_YT
THREAD: When is a 2nd ref not a 2nd ref?

When it's the first ref curated by a PM who will actually honour the result.

JC knows a GE is likely to come before brexit is sorted. He knows his PLP will push remain. He can head them off by sayin we'll offer a PV if we win a GE. 1/
Currently the only EU-ratified deal is Mays iron maiden catastrophuck. If a no-dealer becomes PM & marches towards the cliff, parliament will trigger a GE by supporting a VoNC.
Then Labour will have a chance to pitch THEIR deal. 1st to the public & if they win, to the EU. 2/
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They intended to use PV to reverse brexit & damage JC, but this way it could elect JC & ensure Labour's compromise package gets passed. 3/
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Eleanor Sharpston
@akulith
1. Writing in the Sunday Times yesterday, the Prime Minister announced, ‘My Withdrawal Agreement Bill will be a bold new offer to MPs’.
2. Self-evidently, it is highly desirable for there to be further, well-focused debate in Parliament so as to make intelligent use of the extension (until the end of October) to the period under Article 50 TEU before the UK automatically – with or without a deal – leaves the EU.
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Read 18 tweets
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⚢⚧🌸Sakura No Seirei🌸
@SakuraNoSeirei
#Brexit news for today:

Nigel Adams, Minister for Wales, and Governement whip has resigned the #Cabinet over #TheresaMay's way forward.

1/n
You can hear #TheresaMay's reaction from here

2/n
So the splitting of the #ToryParty continues. Where will it end? And can we expect resignations from #Labour if #Corbyn is seen as giving up too much to #TheresaMay during the discussions tonight.

3/n
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Sergio Graziosi
@GraziosiSergio
What the hell is @jeremycorbyn doing?
Why is he enabling #Tory #Brexit?
Is this the final betrayal?
No, it isn't.
It's the predicted effect of decisions taken 2-3 years ago. All things considered, it's not as bad as it could have been (thanks to #StopBrexit crowd).

Thread.
1/n
To understand why, I need to outline 2 important mechanisms that most people, politicians and commentators seem to ignore, dismiss or simply don't get. They have different and somewhat opposite consequences, but are both decisive in the current & foreseeable predicaments.
2/n
1st and foremost: the biggest constraint that applies to political decision-making comes from the past decisions & policies.
It is a massive constraint.
Cameron COULD NOT convincingly campaign for #Remain, because his own policies CREATED the discontent channelled by #Leave.
3/n
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Markus Drake
@Markus_Drake
On my way to @Die_Gruenen-#BDK18! I'll be sharing impressions so mute me now. It sure has a very democratic feel when most of party leadership ends up hanging out on a train platform in Bitterfeld due to changed train schedules.
#BDK18-rush-hour.
Orga-info:
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