Profile picture
Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
“Our study is dead simple, we wanted to know what happens if we don’t build any more fossil-fuel-burning stuff as of 2018” @SteveDavisUCI

The answer is simple: 658GtCO₂ will be emitted, greater than the 1.5°C carbon budget

1/
rdcu.be/bIiws

nationalgeographic.com/environment/20…
Most historic emissions occurred in the developed world (US, EU, etc), while most of the future emissions are in the developing world (China, India, etc).

This, I think, is perhaps one of the biggest climate policy challenges. More here agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

2/
The coal fleet is very young in the China & India (right). Easy for the developed world to quit coal, as the coal fleet is dead anyway.

Surprising how much gas is being built in the developing world (right). The US spike (green) 15 yrs ago is why coal to gas happened fast!

3/
The implications are striking: To limit warming to 1.5°C, not only should no new fossil-fuel-using infrastructure be built, ever again, some existing power plants need to shut down early—& yet today many new power plants are under construction or planned.
nationalgeographic.com/environment/20…
There was another recent study, with higher committed emissions 715GtCO₂ (195GtC), but said "Current fossil fuel infrastructure does not yet commit us to 1.5°C warming". I think this is because they used FAIR, with a lower climate response?

nature.com/articles/s4146…

5/5
Missing some Tweet in this thread?
You can try to force a refresh.

Like this thread? Get email updates or save it to PDF!

Subscribe to Glen Peters
Profile picture

Get real-time email alerts when new unrolls are available from this author!

This content may be removed anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Peters_Glen see all

Profile picture
Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
How do the climate impacts of 1.5°C of warming compare to 2°C of warming?

Climate impacts for 1.5°C are:
Longer categories...

1) 1.5°C is more than ¾ of 2°C of warming (nonlinear, convex)
2) 1.5°C is ¾ of 2°C of warming (linear)
3) 1.5°C is less than ¾ of 2°C of warming (nonlinear, concave)
4) It varies by climate impact

5) Insufficient evidence (doesn't fit on Twitter poll)
BTW, ignore the convex and concave, I got it the wrong way around...
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
If "Nationally Determined Contributions" (NDCs) were, er, nationally determined contributions without emissions trading, then Article 6 is not needed and the Paris Agreement is much cleaner and more likely to deliver the promised cuts.

carbonbrief.org/bonn-climate-t…
Without trading, if a developing country betters a weak NDC, eg India, then those easy gains can't be offset by a rich country that doesn't deliver on their target, eg Norway. A weak Article 6 could completely undermine the Paris NDCs...
It could be argued that emission trading allows financial transfers. Yes. But perhaps better to have NDCs as domestic reductions only, and handle financial transfers separately.

Of course, if you removed ability for accounting tricks, the Paris Agreement would not exist...
Read 3 tweets
Profile picture
Glen Peters
@Peters_Glen
Aviation sure gets people fired up!

Aviation is 3% of global emissions (yes, higher for some countries & individuals), but I get fired up about 100% of global emissions, 97% of which are not aviation.

Here comes a mini-thread on some numbers.

1/
First, aviation has some accounting problems. International aviation is not allocated to countries (~2%, brown in previous tweet), but domestic aviation is (~1%, orange). It is hard to find data & methods on how much international aviation should be allocated to countries.

2/
Second, aviation has extreme inequality. Just one international flight, or several domestic flights, could completely dominate the annual carbon footprint of an individual. From my previous thread, only 3% of people flew in 2017 (globally)

3/
Read 9 tweets

Related threads

Profile picture
Collin Rees
@collinrees
THREAD: @JayInslee's new climate plan is really, REALLY important b/c it takes the climate conversation to a new level that hasn't been explored much – how we actively dismantle the fossil fuel industry & its political power to win the change we need. 1/n

jayinslee.com/issues/freedom…
This plan ends subsidies, stops new fossil fuel infrastructure, & bans fossil fuel exports.

Here's our @OilChangeUS response, but I want to explain why this plan is so exciting & takes the discussion on dealing w/ climate crisis to the next level. 2/n

oilchangeusa.org/response-insle…
The science shows that right now, the carbon in already-operating oil & gas fields & coal mines would take us wayyyy beyond 1.5ºC. To clarify: that's w/ already-existing fossil fuel infrastructure only. 3/n

priceofoil.org/2016/09/22/the…
Read 21 tweets
Profile picture
T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
YOU SHUT YOUR FILTHY F*CKING MOUTH RIGHT THIS INSTANT

It's a total outrage really

Ugh, the *worst*

Read 1746 tweets
Profile picture
T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
I mean really 😂
Got a thread on it that ends here:

There are some additional nuances by state, but that should get him mostly up-to-speed

Basically, yes. It's not an affirmative defense but it will be an argument they make in their briefs, based on the evidence that comes out during discovery or affidavits that get filed

That language is more signaling than legal effect though

1/
Read 1708 tweets
Profile picture
T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
Exactly that

Always glad to provide the entertainment! 👊

Tex. Civ. Prac. & Rem. Code § 73.054(b)

Read 1683 tweets
Profile picture
T. Greg Doucette
@greg_doucette
This was already addressed mid-thread. You do realize filing lawsuits costs money to the court, yes?

Not getting paid != going into the hole paying the court costs

The goat's still waiting...

There are a few options. Provide evidence he wasn't there or X wasn't there, or depose X and challenge X's credibility (history of lying, etc), or provide evidence X is lying (emails, texts, etc), or get on the stand to say "that's false" and pray

They're too dim to realize ppl find out about the GFMs *because* they were shared on Twitter

Read 1743 tweets
Profile picture
Mike Shellenberger
@ShellenbergerMD
1. This is the story of how natural gas companies & environmentalists have for 50 years used renewables to greenwash anti-nuclear advocacy & lock in fossil fuels to the detriment of the climate, and their consciences.
2. Everybody from @GretaThunberg to Green New Dealer @AOC says we have to transition from fossil fuels to renewables in order to save the climate.

But if solar and wind are substitutes for fossil fuels, why are the world’s biggest oil and gas firms promoting them?
3. Over the last three years, the five largest publicly-traded oil and gas companies, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, BP, and Total invested a whopping one billion dollars into advertising and lobbying for renewables and other climate-related ventures.
Read 40 tweets

Trending hashtags

#blackfacelawyer #Javascript30 #ThreadnoughtBingo #Denisovans #retweet #shop #Study #priorities #LAWYERED #Coursera #CryAboutIt #QTNA #neurological #products #NatashaJaitt #Yoonmin #wanted #wewesoexcite #dead #HowEmbarrassing #GOTV #Grassi #ded #LaAlameda #WorldWide
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!