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recap monthly MT GLOBAL M.PMI Jun2019 surveys - Business Confidence vs Markets thread 1/n
• most countries continue to weaken = #GlobalSlowDown
• Global index falls to 80M low
• market prices global central bank renew /continue dovish stance
• first chart: "breadth"
• most countries continue to weaken = #GlobalSlowDown
• Global index falls to 80M low
• market prices global central bank renew /continue dovish stance
• first chart: "breadth"
2/n Global M.PMI DM vs EM
• Global 49.6 80M low
• DM 49.5 80M low
• EM 49.6 36M low
all now < 50
(GDP weighted calculations)
• Global 49.6 80M low
• DM 49.5 80M low
• EM 49.6 36M low
all now < 50
(GDP weighted calculations)
3/n Global / DM / EM 5Y rolling pctl and Freight costs BDI YoY
• everyone expects global flush of liquidity, rate cuts, possible QE, to quickly stimulate way ahead of lurking recessions ?
• everyone expects global flush of liquidity, rate cuts, possible QE, to quickly stimulate way ahead of lurking recessions ?
4/n Global Manufacturing PMI heatmap Jun2019 surveys
5/n Global Manufacturing PMI vs YoY in relevance to world GDP contribution as of Jun2019
6/n Global M. PMI table overview DM vs EM
...just look at those 5Y rolling pctl...
= global disinflationary expectations, massive flight to quality (bonds, gold, JPY) and front running ahead of QE.
...just look at those 5Y rolling pctl...
= global disinflationary expectations, massive flight to quality (bonds, gold, JPY) and front running ahead of QE.
7/n Global M.PMI vs markets : Energies & Metals
• Palladium (auto industry switch) is "off scale" and mostly contributes to the overall metal divergence
• Palladium (auto industry switch) is "off scale" and mostly contributes to the overall metal divergence
8/n Global "big 4" US, Eurozone, China, Japan
• US is hanging in there ... so far
• US is hanging in there ... so far
9/n Eurozone "big4" M.PMI Germany, France, Italy, Spain
• France indeed strong rebound
• Germany first sign of bottoming ?
• France indeed strong rebound
• Germany first sign of bottoming ?
10/n Global M.PMI vs $ACWI and EM PMI vs $EEM
11/n regional view vs markets: USA
• massive bond rally makes sense
• stocks making new ATH on rate cut dope completely diverging from business confidence itself which is rare.
• bonds pricing in recession, stocks already pricing huge confidence rebound later (FED & tariff)
• massive bond rally makes sense
• stocks making new ATH on rate cut dope completely diverging from business confidence itself which is rare.
• bonds pricing in recession, stocks already pricing huge confidence rebound later (FED & tariff)
12/n regional view sample: CANADA
• same story: bonds rally on dovish BoC, disinflationary sentiment, stocks follow SPX and diverge from own business confidence
• same story: bonds rally on dovish BoC, disinflationary sentiment, stocks follow SPX and diverge from own business confidence
13/n regional view sample: CHINA
• similar picture...and PBoC / CCP already injected $1.3trillion this year in new stimuli
• similar picture...and PBoC / CCP already injected $1.3trillion this year in new stimuli
14/n regional view GERMANY
• PMI "rebounds" to 45.0 4M H but deep in trouble = ECB to rescue
• Bunds rally without any end... -40bp now as front running and ultimate global flight to safe haven
• DAX as so many other indices diverged from own business confidence. leading?
• PMI "rebounds" to 45.0 4M H but deep in trouble = ECB to rescue
• Bunds rally without any end... -40bp now as front running and ultimate global flight to safe haven
• DAX as so many other indices diverged from own business confidence. leading?
15/n regional view FRANCE
• some may argue "curve-fitting", so what... at least M.PMI rebound to 51.9 9M high and would "justify" CAC40 move (sure, global correlation to DAX, SPX etc too)
• OATs rally of course too
• some may argue "curve-fitting", so what... at least M.PMI rebound to 51.9 9M high and would "justify" CAC40 move (sure, global correlation to DAX, SPX etc too)
• OATs rally of course too
16/n regional view ITALY
• this is quite something !
• PMI 48.4
• MIB rallied strongly recently (especially banks), as BBB rated BTPs buyers are not stoppable (front running for ECB QE). now back to 1.68% for ONE REASON ONLY.
• this is quite something !
• PMI 48.4
• MIB rallied strongly recently (especially banks), as BBB rated BTPs buyers are not stoppable (front running for ECB QE). now back to 1.68% for ONE REASON ONLY.
17/n regional view UK
• PMI got slammed to 48.0 80M low with own hard BREXIT fear contributing to global PMI weakness
• Gilts rally for same reasons mentioned before. disinflation. dovish BoE. global slowdown.
• PMI got slammed to 48.0 80M low with own hard BREXIT fear contributing to global PMI weakness
• Gilts rally for same reasons mentioned before. disinflation. dovish BoE. global slowdown.
18/n Eurozone M.PMI vs Creditspreads
• business confidence (was) on the floor, small rebound mostly due to France
• ITRAXX Main (Corps) or Financials stood firm , never sold off because of FED/ECB/PBoC/BoJ/BoE/RBA/RBNZ/BoC and everyone else placed their CB PUT.
• business confidence (was) on the floor, small rebound mostly due to France
• ITRAXX Main (Corps) or Financials stood firm , never sold off because of FED/ECB/PBoC/BoJ/BoE/RBA/RBNZ/BoC and everyone else placed their CB PUT.
20/end @threadreaderapp unroll
