Thread by @MacroTechnicals

MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum Weekly recap wk27 as of 05Jul19 - PFLUGPOST thread 1/n

• global biz confidence at 80M low
• global govt bonds yields making new lows
• ISM at 32M low ,NMI still strong
• Friday NFP so strong, questions FED rate cut hope

2/n update global markets performance YTD as of wk27

3/n update global FX matrix winners and losers as of wk27

4/n update global 10Y govt bonds heatmap wk27 - BONDS ON FIRE

5/n update global govt 2Y 10Y curve and FX wk27

6/n update Global govt 2Y 10Y Yieldcurve vs rating chart wk27

• Spain and Portugal now "trading" like AAA/AA rating after massive hopeful ECB QE front running

7/n recent PIGS govt bonds ECB QE front running theme in historical context

8/n despite the weak Eurozone business confidence and sharply falling govt yields, corporate and financials credits risk premia are getting sold on ECB put hopes (and new mega dovish chief coming in)

9/n update global markets momentum / trends / exhaustion

• some govt bonds are clearly overbought on a ST technical view, while trend is strong

10/n ISM & NMI read was yet again almost only about China tariff, slowdown, increasing costs towards customers.

11/n ISM / NMI sector growth / contraction breadth is nowhere near the weakness like 2016, but it is slowing. This alone is not a reason to cut rates yet

12/n US employment situation looks fine too... NFP strong, UE rate 3.7% still sub 4 ... nothing is even close to roll over...not really a reason for FED to cut rates, either

13/n hence, FF futures pulled back sharply towards "only" -25bp cut (while GDP 3.1%, UE 3.7%, NFP >200k, ISM+NMI > 50, SPX near ATH, VIX low...)

14/n FF futures impl yields (Mr Market) pulled slightly higher from Jun dot-plot snapshot

15/n FF futures small reversal and strong NFP makes a US 10Y or 30Y overdue correction/consolidation even more likely IMHO

16/n Gold and Bonds just look a bit overstretched here. RSI doesn't always mean a lot, it could mean STRENGTH too, not just "overbought". But ST riskreward is possibly not in favour for longs but correction/consolidation

17/n anyway...as we have now approached July,here is the monthly update for the tongue-in-cheek YieldCurve vs VIX...I mentioned this all year,Jan-Jul "could be" subdued vola.Whatever the trigger can be,H2 2019 starts now.If this happens I hv a crystal ball. if not,tealeaves. LOL

18/end good night folks

have a good week ahead x

19/end @threadreaderapp unroll