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YouGov
@YouGov
, 5 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Does the Conservative Party have a problem with entryism? YouGov's @chriscurtis94 takes a look yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Large numbers of those voting haven't been in the party long. One third (34%) of Conservative members have joined the party since the 2017 general election (but longer ago than the 3 month cut-off point for voting eligibility). yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Of this group of recently-joined Conservative members, the single most common motivation for joining (59%) was to be able to vote in the leadership election yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
That being said, the voting records of these newly-joined members are still strongly Conservative: 92% voted Tory in 2017, as did 71% in 2015. Only 2% did at the EU elections (but then so did only 22% of all members) yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
These newly-joined members are more pro-Boris.: 85% say they will vote for him. But given the membership as a whole backs Boris over Hunt by 74% to 26%, all these new members are doing is shifting the dial, not changing the result
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
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YouGov
@YouGov
Half of patient-facing NHS staff say they're not adequately trained to spot a victim of domestic abuse, our new Healthcare Professionals survey shows. This goes for 52% of hospital staff and 48% of GPs yougov.co.uk/topics/health/…
26% of patient-facing NHS staff say they've not received training to identify a victim of domestic abuse, and do not see it as their role to do so. This is the opinion among 30% of hospital staff and 25% of staff in GP surgeries yougov.co.uk/topics/health/…
Only 36% of NHS staff in patient-facing roles have received what they see as adequate training for supporting victims of domestic abuse – almost two thirds less than the proportion who feel able to identify a victim yougov.co.uk/topics/health/…
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YouGov
@YouGov
Latest Westminster voting intention (5-6 Aug)
Con - 31%
Lab - 22%
Lib Dem - 21%
Brexit Party - 14%
Green - 7%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Which of the following do you think would make the best Prime Minister?
Boris Johnson - 39%
Jeremy Corbyn - 19%
Don't know - 37%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
How well / badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain's exit from the EU?
Well - 12%
Badly - 76%
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Read 4 tweets
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YouGov
@YouGov
Non-Western countries tend to think China has a positive effect on world affairs, according to the #YouGovCambridge globalism project, while Western counties aren’t so sure. Countries most positive on China's effect:
🇳🇬 92%
🇲🇽 73%
🇹🇭 71%
🇿🇦 70%
🇧🇷 65%
yougov.co.uk/topics/interna…
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is less well known globally than other global leaders, the study also shows. Among those who do know of him, the trend continues of people in Western countries expressing a more sceptical view yougov.co.uk/topics/interna…
A majority most of the 22 countries asked would prefer the US to be the most powerful force in world politics over China. Preference for US as most powerful is strongest in Japan (72% to 7%), India (65% to 9%) and the US (77% to 9%) yougov.co.uk/topics/interna…
Read 4 tweets

Related threads

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Anthony Wells
@anthonyjwells
A longish thread about trying to explain the differences in party support - primarily Labour - in the polls.
It is often very difficult to get to the bottom of the differences between polls. There is rarely one big, easy simple answer, it's normally a bit of lots of little, different to explain things. Hence stupid & simple explanations prosper.
One current cause seems to be different approaches to past vote weighting. Most pollsters* weight by how people voted at the last election (ensuring that the sample has 44% people who voted Conservative in 2017, 41% Labour in 2017 and so on)
Read 18 tweets
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Flavible Politics
@flaviblePolitic
YouGov Scenario Thread (2) - 27-06-2019

Westminster Voting Intention if:

Corbyn Sticking to Labour Alternative Brexit
Starmer Sticking to Labour Alternative Brexit

Corbyn 2nd Ref & Opposing Brexit
Starmer 2nd Ref & Opposing Brexit

Source: yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
YouGov (Corbyn Labour Brexit) - 2019-06-27
LDem: 30%
Con: 24%
BRX: 19%
Lab: 17%
SNP: 4%
Grn: 4%
PC: 1%

Flavible Projection
LDem: 209 (+197)
Con: 181 (-137)
Lab: 150 (-112)
SNP: 48 (+13)
BRX: 38 (+38)
PC: 4 (-)
Grn: 1 (-)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ 2017
flavible.com/politics/map/p…
YouGov (Starmer Labour Brexit) - 2019-06-27
LDem: 29%
Con: 24%
BRX: 19%
Lab: 17%
Grn: 5%
SNP: 4%
PC: 1%

Flavible Projection
LDem: 195 (+183)
Con: 191 (-127)
Lab: 154 (-108)
SNP: 48 (+13)
BRX: 38 (+38)
PC: 4 (-)
Grn: 1 (-)
Ind: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ 2017
flavible.com/politics/map/p…
Read 5 tweets
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John Rentoul
@JohnRentoul
More Labour Party members voted Green than Lib Dem last week: @YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Nineteen per cent of Conservative Party members voted Conservative last week: @YouGov yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
Six per cent of Tory members voted Lib Dem; 4% of Labour members voted Brexit Party: @YouGov
Read 3 tweets
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Edwin Hayward🦄🏹🗡️
@uk_domain_names
I have taken the 2014 European election votes and the recent YouGov survey (link) showing expected voting patterns in the upcoming European elections broken down by area/party, and projected how many MEPs they'd win. Pro-Remain parties are indicated by "*"
yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…
I'll go through each area, and give a "pro-Remain" voting recommendation.

EAST MIDLANDS (5 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-2)
Tories: 1 (-1)
Labour: 1 (=)
*Green: 1 (+1)
*LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 2 (+2)
*Change UK: 0 (N/A)

*Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Green
EAST OF ENGLAND (7 MEPs)

2019 MEPs (Change on 2014)
UKIP: 0 (-3)
Tories: 1 (-2)
Labour: 2 (+1)
* Green: 0 (=)
* LibDems: 0 (=)
Brexit: 3 (+3)
* Change UK: 1 (+1)

Pro-Remain Voting Recommendation: Change UK, or Green (2nd among pro-Remain parties, and in contention for an MEP)
Read 18 tweets
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Sophie Hill
@sophie_e_hill
(1/?)
OK... I've finally snapped. Apparently this argument will never die 🧟‍♂️🧟‍♂️🧟‍♂️ but here's a thread anyway.

In short: there's NO EVIDENCE that refusing to back a public vote is a vote-maximizing position for Labour.
It's true that if we look at the 2016 results by constituency, a majority of Labour's current seats are probably majority Leave — including many marginal seats (h/t @chrishanretty).
So... doesn't this mean it would be electoral suicide for Labour to back a public vote? 😱

🙅‍♀️ No! Because public opinion has changed since the referendum!
Read 13 tweets
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Sunder Katwala
@sundersays
"Pro-EU parties to use European elections as 'soft referendum'"
* the approach outlined (no alliances or pacts, compete with other pro-EU parties) is literally the opposite of a referendum approach (combine/aggregate: seek majority).
theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
It doesn't work as a proxy referendum
britishfuture.org/articles/europ…

Probable Change UK, Greens, LibDems, Renew contest in some regions reduces no of pro-Remain MEPs, eg 4-way split of 15-20% can "waste" votes under PR lists. (Eg waste < 5%, or end wasting 15% = no seats x4 if unlucky)
A particular risk in regions that are smaller & more challenging (eg especially north-east; also east midlands, east of england). It may be important in Wales, where Plaid means 5-way division of non-Labour pro-EU. Scotland a bit different again: major pro-EU party in SNP
Read 20 tweets

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