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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
, 8 tweets, 3 min read Read on Twitter
Boris Johnson is going to be an unproven (at best) Prime Minister facing an unprecedented challenge for the country.

His back benchers to be are getting ready... Exhibit A
Exhibit B, this is the current Chancellor, hence unprecedented... huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/mps-comm…
Exhibit C, another current Cabinet Minister.

Perhaps they won't all act at the same time. But they don't need to to deny a Parliamentary majority news.sky.com/story/greg-cla…
They were just today. Here's Rory Stewart a few days ago, for Exhibit D theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
David Gauke won't bring down the Government, but other means to avoid no-deal Brexit seem fine to him, Exhibit E politicshome.com/news/uk/foreig…
Not just Cabinet ministers, Exhibit F, Tobias Ellwood. Not sure whether he'd bring down the Government to avoid no-deal Brexit bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi…
Too many men so far, so here's Margot James, Exhibit G politico.eu/article/uk-dig…
We'll stop before we get to @EmporersNewC thread length, but I think we easily get to 50 Conservative MPs who may vote against no-deal Brexit. How many will is another matter, but it still means no-deal threats don't sound credible to the EU (and might not work even if they were)
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More from @DavidHenigUK see all

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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
It is important to see a no-deal Brexit not as some conspiracy, but potentially the logical conclusion of UK politicians refusing to admit that not everything promised in a referendum was deliverable and compromises would be needed. Which in turn is a terrible future platform
We see the same refusal to confront reality repeated in discussion about a future US trade deal - "they'll have to adopt our food standards" - or most pertinently @BorderIrish - of course we can have no infrastructure even when every other border outside the EU has it
My reply to this sparked many replies agreeing or disagreeing, but you have to remember the context of 2017- the EU having to try to introduce the UK to negotiating reality. If we leave with no-deal that task will pass to the US. They won't be gentle
Read 5 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Rather than learning from the failures of the Theresa May's Brexit negotiation it seems that both candidates are intent on repeating them, only this time shouting rather than talking, as the joke about the English abroad goes.

Let's explain again (thread) all of those mistakes
Mistake 1 - setting no clear realistic outcome

We can all set our negotiating strategy as wanting everything we want, and nothing the other side wants. It doesn't work. And when the other side says no, and you don't have the granular detail of what you want, even less well 2/
Even outside the issues of the Irish backstop, the leadership candidates do not seem to know what relationship they want with the EU in the future beyond no-tariffs. Modern trade is complicated, what of services, regulations etc? 3/
Read 18 tweets
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David Henig
@DavidHenigUK
Doubling down on the complete failure of telling the EU what to do in negotiations, we're going to do the same with the US...

The extreme Brexiteer logic leads to UK isolation because of the opposition to any compromise.
Another big moment will come when Johnson faces the reality of negotiating with the EU without a Parliamentary majority. The latter in particular does not yet seem to register

Elaborate devices and various glosses are at the very heart of treaty making in the modern world, to provide comfort to those conceding, as you must in some areas to get mutual benefit. When will Brexit reality strike?

Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Staedtler
@Staedtler
At least try and look on the positive side. Boris Johnson has wanted to be prime minister all his life, so he's not going to want to throw it away as soon as he's got it.
You insist on imagining politicians with superhuman powers to destroy the country. What do you think Boris Johnson is going to do?
He inherits a government with an operating majority of 3. By the end of summer that will likely be down to 2.
That's the difference of just one MP.
Read 8 tweets
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Ed Davey 🔶
@EdwardJDavey
Let’s talk about Boris

One of most disreputable, toxic, selfish politicians I’ve ever met. As Tories choose between British Trump & ex-Health Sec who’s mission was to destroy health service, let's remember why #Johnson is #UnfitForOffice
[Many threads]
2018: Letterboxes
Wrote that women wearing niqab looked like “letterboxes” & “bank robbers”; triggering attacks on our Muslim community, “letterbox” graffitied on homes, and giving racists new language in hate speech

#Johnson is #UnfitForOffice
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
2008: “Blacks have lower IQs”
As editor of the Spectator he was responsible for - and clearly condoned - this racist drawl. He and his racist worldview has no place in Parliament, let alone @10DowningStreet

#Johnson is #UnfitForOffice
standard.co.uk/news/mayor/bor…
Read 16 tweets
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James Melville
@JamesMelville
Boris Johnson is completely unfit for the purpose of being Prime Minister. Here’s a thread on why this is the case....>
1/ When Boris Johnson tried to explain the single market to Robert Peston, it turned into a scene from The Thick of It. Because underneath the self-styled jovial bluster, lies a man who is so far out of his depth he needs a deep sea submarine to save him.
2/ Here’s a reminder of what happened when Boris Johnson visited a Sikh temple in Bristol during the 2017 election campaign.
Read 11 tweets
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Alberto Nardelli
@AlbertoNardelli
NEW: I have spent a bit of time working to answer a simple, but important, question: was Boris Johnson a good foreign secretary?

I have spoken to senior US, European and UK diplomats & officials who all worked and dealt with Johnson directly buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
The diplomats and officials paint a picture of a foreign secretary who wasn't just funny or prone to innocent gaffes — but was at times "woefully unprepared" for one of the top jobs in British politics
This tale begins with a “MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN” Trump campaign cap, and a dinner in Mayfair, London, between Johnson and US secretary of state John Kerry. It stretches from bathrooms in Paris to high-level meetings about the war in Yemen buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 5 tweets
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Stuart Millar
@stuartmillar159
Boris Johnson Is Favourite To Become The UK’s Next Prime Minister. This Is What The World Thought Of Him As Foreign Secretary.

Fantastic deep dive from @albertonardelli on Johnson’s performance in the only senior ministerial job he’s held

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
@BuzzFeedNews interviewed seven senior US, European and UK diplomats and officials from the highest levels of government with direct experience of Johnson.

Their views:”woefully unprepared”, “form over substance”, “liked but not respected”

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
A UK diplomat said they’d felt embarrassed about representing the UK for the first time in their career after a trip with Johnson to South East Asia because of his lack of basic knowledge on the issues, and his lack of sensitivity towards local cultures

buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…
Read 7 tweets
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Edwin Hayward
@uk_domain_names
Boris Johnson: "I congratulate my Right Honourable Friend on beginning her campaign to sell this deal to the country with the frank admission just now that it is unsatisfactory."

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day, and we just hit Boris Johnson o'clock.
He continues: "I must say that's a bit of an understatement. It's very hard to see how this business could provide certainty to business or to anyone else when you have half the Cabinet going around reassuring business that the UK is effectively going to remain in the Customs
Union and in the Single Market, and the Prime Minister herself continuing to say that we are going to take back control of our laws, vary our tariffs, and do - as she said just now - real free trade deals. They. Can't. Both. Be. Right. Which is it?"

Bravo!
Read 7 tweets

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