Thread by @DavidHenigUK

Rather than learning from the failures of the Theresa May's Brexit negotiation it seems that both candidates are intent on repeating them, only this time shouting rather than talking, as the joke about the English abroad goes.

Let's explain again (thread) all of those mistakes

https://twitter.com/HeleneBismarck/status/1150859269727772674

Mistake 1 - setting no clear realistic outcome

We can all set our negotiating strategy as wanting everything we want, and nothing the other side wants. It doesn't work. And when the other side says no, and you don't have the granular detail of what you want, even less well 2/

Even outside the issues of the Irish backstop, the leadership candidates do not seem to know what relationship they want with the EU in the future beyond no-tariffs. Modern trade is complicated, what of services, regulations etc? 3/

Mistake 2 - no domestic consensus

When you negotiate on behalf of a country the single most important thing you need is the backing of your Parliament. One of the most striking things about this contest is the number of Conservative MPs denouncing the plans outlined 4/

The new PM is going to be listened to politely in Brussels, Berlin, Paris wherever, and then asked whether they actually have a majority for their no-deal threats, i.e. should we take this seriously. They don't. Why do anything for a minority Government? 5/

Mistake 3 - Brexit means no legislative program

The PM's domestic agenda gradually shrank away as Brexit came to dominate, then even the Brexit bills couldn't be advanced, because of the lack of a majority. The same will happen to a new PM without a Brexit majority 6/

Mistake 4 - threats don't work, win-win does

There's precisely zero evidence that threatening no-deal will help the UK get a better Brexit deal. International negotiations work on all sides getting some of they want, threats destroy the trust needed for this 7/

Some will say the PM never really threatened no-deal, but that's just a rewrite of history, it is clear that was a theme running through UK domestic debate, and they read our papers. Again, shouting louder isn't going to change that this isn't how to negotiate 8/

Mistake 5 - not getting support from stakeholders

It isn't just political support you want, but business, devolved regions, NGOs, as much as you can get to strengthen your position, and amplify your message. It looks unlikely that the new PM will have any of this. 9/

In particular, the message to business of please spend money to prepare for no-deal jars badly with the message that this probably isn't going to happen, but we need to threaten it anyway. Government has money, businesses have profit margins, should they spend unwisely? 10/

Mistake 6 - deal / no-deal is the outcome

Whatever happens in October, this is not the end of the story. It is just the start of the next phase of UK-EU activity. We're not going to be well positioned for that blaming the EU for everything. We're surrounded geographically 11/

Mistake 7 - don't insult your officials

Officials negotiate under political direction. Until the last stages of a negotiation. But the narrative in the UK has been that they have led politicians astray. It is poisonous for good governance. 12/

Mistake 8 - have a negotiating team structure

We know less about the new PM on this issue than any other, presumably because it is deemed insignificant. It isn't - unbelievably we spent 3 years on Brexit talks without anyone in the role of Chief Negotiator. Basic error 13/

Mistake 9 - size matters

Comedy moment of last night's TV debate was Johnson saying we would use our leverage in trade negotiations with the US to change their food regulations. Yeah right. The EU and US are much bigger than the UK. They'll act like bullies as they can 14/

Sometimes it feels like our negotiating approach and strategy come from 1850, when we were the top dogs and the navy could enforce that. And did, opium trade for a start. It should be obvious that doesn't apply in 2019 15/

Mistake 10 - Understand the other side

Clearly we have never understood the EU side of these negotiations. We've assumed their red lines aren't real. Or they are but shouldn't be. Or are just to punish us. Instead of trying to understand what they are and where we can deal 16/

We've wanted to make the Brexit negotiation all about us. We're leaving, this is what you did wrong, this is what you should do. Such advice is rarely heeded during a divorce whether right or wrong. We have to understand the real EU position 17/

To conclude there's a huge amount a new PM could do to improve their chances of getting an improved relationship and deal. So far they are instead choosing to double down on failure to please a minority. Perhaps in office? But not holding my breath 18/ end