Thread by @FPLdepression

Using points per minute against the bottom 14 and the top 6 home and away, and average minutes played (when not injured/suspended), I've projected some premium players' points for the first 5 GWs 👇👇

[THREAD]

❤/RTs and all that good shit is appreciated 😁

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DISCLAIMER:

Don't base decisions on this. Its last year's data, and things won't stay the same. At best it just gives a loose approximation

Also PPmins isn't the best metric, as it reflects unfairly well on sub apps, but it's what I've got so 🤷‍♂️ 😂

Enjoy 😅

🇦🇷 Aguero 🇦🇷

💷 £12m

HOME VS BOTTOM 14 - 7.84PPG
HOME VS TOP 6 - 10.38 😱
AWAY VS BOTTOM 14 - 4.57
AWAY VS TOP 6 - 1.73 🤢

First 5GW projection: 32 pts
Points per game: 6.4 pts
Value: 2.66 pts per million

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🇬🇧 Sterling 🇬🇧

💷 £12m

B14H - 8.88 👀
T6H - 5.99
B14A - 4.84
T6A - 4.06

Projection: 29 pts
PPG: 5.8 pts
Value: 2.45

🇬🇧 Kane 🇬🇧

💷 £12m

B14H - 6.77
T6H - 3.65 🤢
B14A - 7.18 👀
T6A - 4.59

Projection: 29 pts
PPG: 5.8 pts
Value: 2.68

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🇰🇷 Son 🇰🇷

💷 £9.5m

B14H - 5.73
T6H - 3.25 🤢
B14A - 6.56 👌
T6A - 2.45 🤢

Projection: 22 pts
PPG: 4.4 pts
Value: 2.32

🇪🇬 Salah 🇪🇬

💷 £12.5m

B14H - 8.08 🤤
T6H - 5.72
B14A - 7.51 🤤
T6A - 2.28 😳

Projection: 37 pts
PPG: 7.4 pts
Value: 2.95

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🇸🇳 Mane 🇸🇳

💷 £11.5m

B14H - 8.50 👀👀
T6H - 6.02 👀
B14A - 5.47
T6A - 1.91 💩

Projection: 34 pts
PPG: 6.8
Value: 2.95

🇬🇦 Aubameyang 🇬🇦

💷 £11m

B14H - 6.76 🤤
T6H - 5.07
B14A - 6.13 👌
T6A - 1.38 💩💩💩

Projection: 25 pts
PPG: 5 pts
Value: 2.31

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🇫🇷 Lacazette 🇫🇷

💷 £9.5m

B14H - 4.14 😶
T6H - 6.27 👀
B14A - 4.38
T6A - 3.97

Projection: 23 pts
PPG: 4.6 pts
Value: 2.44

🇬🇧 Vardy* 🇬🇧

💷 £9.0m

B14H - 4.55
T6H - 4.49
B14A - 6.22 👌
T6A - 4.69

Projection: 25 pts
PPG: 5 pts
Value: 2.72
*under both managers
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🇮🇸 Sigurdsson 🇮🇸

💷 £8.0m

B14H - 4.06
T6H - 6.02 👌
B14A - 5.69
T6A - 3.51

Projection: 25 pts
PPG: 5 pts
Value: 3.15 🤤

🇧🇷 Richarlison 🇧🇷

💷 £8.0m

B14H: 4.88
T6H: 5.37
B14A: 4.46
T6A: 2.38 😶

Projection: 23 pts
PPG: 4.6 pts
Value: 2.89

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In conclusion:

Points wise:
1. Salah
2. Mane
3. Aguero
4. Kane
5. Sterling
6. Auba
6. Siggy
6. Vardy
9. Laca
10. Richarlison
11. Son

Value wise:
1. Siggy
2. Mane
3. Salah
4. Richarlison
5. Vardy
6. Kane
7. Aguero
8. Sterling
9. Lacazette
10. Auba
11. Son

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Now obviously these value are only for the opening 5 GWs. I'm expecting to wildcard before GW6 hence the 5 GW margin

Thanks for wasting your time reading this pretty pointless and overly lengthy thread 😉

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As pointed out by a couple of people, Son is indeed suspended for the first 2 games of the season.

His projection didn't factor this in (because I completely forgot he was suspended 😂). His true projected score GW1-5 would be roughly 14 pts

*should say £11m for Kane not £12m