Thread by @repdonsman456

🚨 FINAL #peipoli PROJECTION 🚨

The big question is, can the @PEIgreens achieve a governing majority on Tuesday?

If the @PEIPCParty outperforms its polling next week – which has happened in the last few elections – they are in big trouble!

Vote share:

@PEIgreens 36.9%
@PEIPCParty 30.7%
@PEILiberalParty 28.1%
@ndp_pei 3.4%

Seat count:

Green – 14
PC – 7
Liberal – 6
NDP – 0

Most likely outcome:

Green minority (39.3%)
Green majority (27.1%)
PC minority (16.3%)
Tie (9.2%)
Liberal minority (7.1%)
PC majority (0.7%)
Liberal majority (0.2%)

Green Party margin of victory:

2 above +15
7 +15 to +7.5
4 +7.5 to +2.5
2 +2.5 to -2.5
5 -2.5 to -7.5
6 -7.5 to -15
1 below -15

Progressive Conservative Party margin of victory:

0 above +15
4 +15 to +7.5
3 +7.5 to +2.5
0 +2.5 to -2.5
6 -2.5 to -7.5
8 -7.5 to -15
6 below -15

Liberal Party margin of victory:

1 above +15
2 +15 to +7.5
2 +7.5 to +2.5
2 +2.5 to -2.5
1 -2.5 to -7.5
11 -7.5 to -15
8 below -15

New Democratic Party margin of victory:

0 above +15
0 +15 to +7.5
0 +7.5 to +2.5
0 +2.5 to -2.5
0 -2.5 to -7.5
0 -7.5 to -15
27 below -15

Green Party rating:

1 safe win
4 likely wins
4 leaning toward
5 toss-ups
6 leaning against
6 likely losses
1 safe loss

12.7 seats (average)

Progressive Conservative Party rating:

0 safe wins
3 likely wins
1 leaning toward
3 toss-ups
5 leaning against
9 likely losses
6 safe losses

7.9 seats (average)

Liberal Party rating:

1 safe win
2 likely wins
0 leaning toward
2 toss-ups
3 leaning against
11 likely losses
8 safe losses

6.3 seats (average)

New Democratic Party rating:

0 safe wins
0 likely wins
0 leaning toward
0 toss-ups
0 leaning against
1 likely loss
26 safe losses

0.1 seats (average)

Electoral reform referendum:

52.8% for Yes (mixed-member proportional representation)
47.2% for No (first past the post)

Chances of winning:

70.9% non-binding yes
27.7% non-binding no
1.3% binding yes
0.2% binding no

I tested out a new variable this time around: the number of campaign stops taken by #pei major-party leaders. A bonus ranging between 1% and 5% was given for every 10 visits made in each district.

This addition wasn't officially incorporated into my model – and it didn't change the result anywhere – but I'll be watching how well it does, and whether it can call more races correctly when compared to my main forecast.

But using the riding-by-riding (along with some precinct-level) numbers from @kylejhutton which I have good reason to believe – and strongly suspect – are more accurate than mine, would yield a G→L flip in O'Leary-Inverness as well as a G→C flip in Mermaid-Stratford.

Link to interactive map: bit.ly/2JVu00n

https://twitter.com/kylejhutton/status/1099513006562652160

https://twitter.com/repdonsman456/status/1112410687324602369

On that note, the lives of a brilliant man and a wonderful young boy were cut short last Friday.
If there's anything you can spare, please consider donating to help Mr. Underhay's family through this period of tragedy: gofundme.com/raise-money-fo…
May God be with you Karri and Linden.

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