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The brutal Barclay-Barnier bust up (ht @brunobrussels) is a reminder of the simple reality that the last two years of negotiations now stand on the brink of almost total failure for *both* sides. One side may suffer more—inevitably—but that doesn’t mean the other has succeeded*
*Unless success is measured solely on the crude metric of whether leaving the EU is proven to be very painful and wider considerations of peace, economic stability, friendly relations etc are sacrificed on that altar.
There’s a tendency to say this was always inevitable. Not true. Seismic choices were made, mostly in Brussels not Paris or Berlin. Remember, Dublin was uncomfortable with the original backstop proposal (ht @tconnellyRTE) and could not believe it has been agreed in Dec
We have a situation, now, where the wider European economy’s health (and potentially its most important security and diplomatic relationships between the E3) rests on finding a solution to the Irish border that is acceptable to English and Irish nationalists and Ulster unionists
And all this has to be done by October 31, 2019. The Irish border has, effectively, been in dispute since 1920.
Ultimately, a decision was made that *everything* had to be agreed or *nothing* was agreed. Why? Other than to maintain EU leverage, why are holiday packages or citizens’ rights dependent on a solution to the Irish border? Why not agree what you can? Either way, this was a choice
