,
46 tweets,
9 min read
Read on Twitter
1\
Book Review
(a thread)
Book Review
(a thread)
2\
If you’ve been reading my series on the origins of Spygate, then you’re familiar with the name Duane “Dewey” Clarridge.
If you’ve been reading my series on the origins of Spygate, then you’re familiar with the name Duane “Dewey” Clarridge.
3\
In the 1970’s and 80’s, Clarridge was the CIA’s version of Peter Strzok. He was everywhere. He was somehow a key player in every major CIA operation, or so it seemed.
In the 1970’s and 80’s, Clarridge was the CIA’s version of Peter Strzok. He was everywhere. He was somehow a key player in every major CIA operation, or so it seemed.
4\
Long retired from the Agency, he played a small part in the 2016 presidential election as an advisor to Ben Carson.
Long retired from the Agency, he played a small part in the 2016 presidential election as an advisor to Ben Carson.
5\
In April 2016, Clarridge passed away. Prior to his death, he gave a final interview to Newsweek.
In the interview, he hinted that the October Surprise was real.
newsweek.com/duane-dewey-cl…
In April 2016, Clarridge passed away. Prior to his death, he gave a final interview to Newsweek.
In the interview, he hinted that the October Surprise was real.
newsweek.com/duane-dewey-cl…
6\
For those unfamiliar with the October Surprise, let’s go back to the start of the Iranian Revolution in January 1979.
After increasing civil unrest, the Shah of Iran was forced to leave Iraq for exile in Egypt.
For those unfamiliar with the October Surprise, let’s go back to the start of the Iranian Revolution in January 1979.
After increasing civil unrest, the Shah of Iran was forced to leave Iraq for exile in Egypt.
7\
In February of 79, the Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran from exile in France to head the new Islamic government.
In February of 79, the Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran from exile in France to head the new Islamic government.
8\
In November, Iranian students stormed the American embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostages.
In November, Iranian students stormed the American embassy in Tehran, taking 52 Americans hostages.
9\
In April 1980, the US special forces attempted to rescue the hostages.
The mission was a miserable failure.
8 Americans died.
In April 1980, the US special forces attempted to rescue the hostages.
The mission was a miserable failure.
8 Americans died.
10\
As the 1980 presidential election drew nearer, the hostage crisis was becoming a serious political problem for the Carter administration.
As the 1980 presidential election drew nearer, the hostage crisis was becoming a serious political problem for the Carter administration.
11\
The term “October Surprise” was coined by Washington Post columnist Jack Anderson to describe a possible scenario in which the hostages could be released a month before the election, giving President Carter a much-needed boost in the polls.
The term “October Surprise” was coined by Washington Post columnist Jack Anderson to describe a possible scenario in which the hostages could be released a month before the election, giving President Carter a much-needed boost in the polls.
12\
As it turns out, the hostages were not released in October or November.
They were released on January 20, 1981...just after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as the nation’s 40th president.
As it turns out, the hostages were not released in October or November.
They were released on January 20, 1981...just after Ronald Reagan was sworn in as the nation’s 40th president.
13\
Needless to say, there has been much speculation over the years about the reasons the hostages were released on that particular date.
Needless to say, there has been much speculation over the years about the reasons the hostages were released on that particular date.
14\
According to Clarridge, the plot was revealed in George Cave’s book, October 1980. While the book was a work of fiction, Clarridge claimed, "What George tells you is the real story.”
"The whole novel is really true."
According to Clarridge, the plot was revealed in George Cave’s book, October 1980. While the book was a work of fiction, Clarridge claimed, "What George tells you is the real story.”
"The whole novel is really true."
15\
Some background on Cave: He attended Princeton University, where he was a Middle Eastern studies major. Prior to attending the university, he served a stint in the army. During that time, he went to language school and became fluent in Farsi.
Some background on Cave: He attended Princeton University, where he was a Middle Eastern studies major. Prior to attending the university, he served a stint in the army. During that time, he went to language school and became fluent in Farsi.
16\
His knowledge of Farsi made him an attractive recruit for the CIA.
Not only was it the language of Iran, Farsi was also the official language of Afghanistan in the 1950’s.
His knowledge of Farsi made him an attractive recruit for the CIA.
Not only was it the language of Iran, Farsi was also the official language of Afghanistan in the 1950’s.
17\
Cave became “our man in the Middle East” during his career in career in the CIA, serving in Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia.
Cave became “our man in the Middle East” during his career in career in the CIA, serving in Iran, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia.
18\
In his book, Cave makes the case that the October Surprise conspiracy was mainly due to the efforts of a character named Qays Tutunchi.
The character is clearly based on the Iranian exile Manucher Ghorbanifar.
In his book, Cave makes the case that the October Surprise conspiracy was mainly due to the efforts of a character named Qays Tutunchi.
The character is clearly based on the Iranian exile Manucher Ghorbanifar.
19\
In my previous thread, I discussed his as a major player -- an operator -- in the Iran-Contra affair.
(Case was also involved in Iran-Contra. He was brought in to translate as trust in Ghorbanifar diminished over time).
In my previous thread, I discussed his as a major player -- an operator -- in the Iran-Contra affair.
(Case was also involved in Iran-Contra. He was brought in to translate as trust in Ghorbanifar diminished over time).
20\
The portrait Cave paints of Ghorbanifar is a man who’s the ultimate jet flying, limousine riding, kiss stealing, wheeling dealing son of a gun.
The portrait Cave paints of Ghorbanifar is a man who’s the ultimate jet flying, limousine riding, kiss stealing, wheeling dealing son of a gun.
21\
He was an international dealer in drugs and arms. He possessed only one moral virtue -- a desire to uphold his end of a deal.
He was an international dealer in drugs and arms. He possessed only one moral virtue -- a desire to uphold his end of a deal.
22\
Ghorbanifar (I will use his name rather than the character’s name from here on out) was a former asset of the SAVAK, the much-hated Iranian secret police closely tied to the CIA and Mossad.
latimes.com/archives/la-xp…
Ghorbanifar (I will use his name rather than the character’s name from here on out) was a former asset of the SAVAK, the much-hated Iranian secret police closely tied to the CIA and Mossad.
latimes.com/archives/la-xp…
23\
His closeness with the Israelis partly explains his future involvement in the Iran-Contra affair.
His closeness with the Israelis partly explains his future involvement in the Iran-Contra affair.
24\
In 1979, Ghorbanifar was contacted by an influential member of the Republican party to discuss the hostage situation.
The character is named Fred Walters in the novel.
In 1979, Ghorbanifar was contacted by an influential member of the Republican party to discuss the hostage situation.
The character is named Fred Walters in the novel.
25\
I have debated who the character corresponds to in real life. Bill Casey, Reagan’s campaign manager and the future CIA director, is named in the book, so it’s not him.
I have debated who the character corresponds to in real life. Bill Casey, Reagan’s campaign manager and the future CIA director, is named in the book, so it’s not him.
26\
I suspect that Walters is a composite of Donald Gregg, Laurence Silberman and Richard Allen
I suspect that Walters is a composite of Donald Gregg, Laurence Silberman and Richard Allen
27\
No doubt Cave was hesitant to use the name of this person because he is still alive and the character is the main connection between the GOP and the Iranians.
Plus, the character enjoys the company of an escort provided by Ghorbanifar. 🤫
No doubt Cave was hesitant to use the name of this person because he is still alive and the character is the main connection between the GOP and the Iranians.
Plus, the character enjoys the company of an escort provided by Ghorbanifar. 🤫
28\
While the clandestine meetings between Walter and the Iranians are going on, the British Home Office is trying to determine what Ghorbanifar is up to
While the clandestine meetings between Walter and the Iranians are going on, the British Home Office is trying to determine what Ghorbanifar is up to
29\
The strength of the novel is the insight it provides into the mundane details of spycraft. There’s not a lot of 007 action. Instead, the characters eat...a lot.
It becomes a joke after a while, I assume the author was in on the joke.
The strength of the novel is the insight it provides into the mundane details of spycraft. There’s not a lot of 007 action. Instead, the characters eat...a lot.
It becomes a joke after a while, I assume the author was in on the joke.
30\
But intelligence work involves a lot of meetings at restaurants. And we certainly see this in Spygate.
Papadopolous’ story is a series of contacts he made in restaurants and bars.
But intelligence work involves a lot of meetings at restaurants. And we certainly see this in Spygate.
Papadopolous’ story is a series of contacts he made in restaurants and bars.
31\
A CIA officer in the book observes that the biggest challenge facing the Agency is the VCR (it’s 1980, don’t forget). Clarridge makes the same observation in his autobiography. An effective CIA agent can’t stay at home and watch movies.
He must mingle.
A CIA officer in the book observes that the biggest challenge facing the Agency is the VCR (it’s 1980, don’t forget). Clarridge makes the same observation in his autobiography. An effective CIA agent can’t stay at home and watch movies.
He must mingle.
32\
CIA operational work is mainly recruiting potential assets.
There a lot of good tidbits like this scattered throughout the book.
CIA operational work is mainly recruiting potential assets.
There a lot of good tidbits like this scattered throughout the book.
33\
In the end, Cave doesn’t suggest there was a quid pro quo agreement between the GOP and the Iranian government to delay the release of the hostages until after the election.
In the end, Cave doesn’t suggest there was a quid pro quo agreement between the GOP and the Iranian government to delay the release of the hostages until after the election.
34\
He makes the case that the Republicans simply had better intel than the Carter administration.
Now, this is hardly a surprising conclusion coming from Cave, who, like many career CIA officers, was unhappy with the reforms of the Carter era.
He makes the case that the Republicans simply had better intel than the Carter administration.
Now, this is hardly a surprising conclusion coming from Cave, who, like many career CIA officers, was unhappy with the reforms of the Carter era.
35\
According to Tim Weiner in “Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA,” George H W Bush was the last popular CIA director with Agency personnel.
Bush, of course, was on the Republican ticket with Ronald Reagan.
According to Tim Weiner in “Legacy of Ashes: The History of the CIA,” George H W Bush was the last popular CIA director with Agency personnel.
Bush, of course, was on the Republican ticket with Ronald Reagan.
36\
Cave doesn’t mention Bush often, but I assume Papa Bush was involved.
Donald Gregg, on whom the Fred Walter character is partially based, was Bush’s national security advisor for 7 years in the 1980’s.
Cave doesn’t mention Bush often, but I assume Papa Bush was involved.
Donald Gregg, on whom the Fred Walter character is partially based, was Bush’s national security advisor for 7 years in the 1980’s.
37\
With superior connections and intel, the GOP was aware that the Iranians were in no rush to release the hostages.
With superior connections and intel, the GOP was aware that the Iranians were in no rush to release the hostages.
38\
The Carter administration, on the other hand
🔹 failed to appreciate the patience of the Iranians
🔹failed to identify who Iranian power players were
🔹finally, failed to appreciate the animosity of Ayatollah Khomeini felt toward President Carter.
The Carter administration, on the other hand
🔹 failed to appreciate the patience of the Iranians
🔹failed to identify who Iranian power players were
🔹finally, failed to appreciate the animosity of Ayatollah Khomeini felt toward President Carter.
39\
Khomeini never forgot a speech Carter gave in Iran, effusively praising the Shah.
Khomeini never forgot a speech Carter gave in Iran, effusively praising the Shah.
40\
No doubt the novel’s greatest revelation is that Ghorbanifar, unbeknownst to the other players, both American and Iranian, arranged for escorts to place large bets all over Europe that Reagan would win the US election.
No doubt the novel’s greatest revelation is that Ghorbanifar, unbeknownst to the other players, both American and Iranian, arranged for escorts to place large bets all over Europe that Reagan would win the US election.
41\
Ghorbanifar even traveled to Las Vegas himself and made a $3 million dollar wager with the Mafia.
Ghorbanifar even traveled to Las Vegas himself and made a $3 million dollar wager with the Mafia.
42\
Even though he had inside information that there would be no October Surprise, it was still quite a gamble on Ghorbanifar’s part.
He hit the jackpot.
Even though he had inside information that there would be no October Surprise, it was still quite a gamble on Ghorbanifar’s part.
He hit the jackpot.
43\
His good fortune didn’t end there -- in 1980 the Iran-Iraq war broke out.
It was a very good time to be an Iranian arms merchant.
His good fortune didn’t end there -- in 1980 the Iran-Iraq war broke out.
It was a very good time to be an Iranian arms merchant.
44\
Addendum: In 1992, the House of Representative assembled a task force to look into various October Surprise theories.
Addendum: In 1992, the House of Representative assembled a task force to look into various October Surprise theories.
45\
The final report concluded there was no evidence that anyone associated with the Reagan campaign attempted to intercede with the Iranians to delay the release of the hostages
The final report concluded there was no evidence that anyone associated with the Reagan campaign attempted to intercede with the Iranians to delay the release of the hostages
46\
One of the attorneys representing the Republicans on the task force was a young David Laufman.
One of the attorneys representing the Republicans on the task force was a young David Laufman.
