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A major mistake many make here is thinking the PRC is run by some wise, Sun Tzu quoting, 8-D chess, mandarins, when in fact it is a Leninist clique terrified (1) of its own people & (2) terrified of its own military having ideas per Lin Biao. Beijing is being humiliated every day
To Westerners, the Tiananmen Square massacre was a brutal and immoral crackdown on democratic activists. To many in China, the Tiananmen Square massacre was a needed restoration of an order broken by indulged and ingrate students. The mainland view of HKG is even more prejudiced
The most constructive thing Australia and other nations could do is be prepared to take a large number of (sadly imminent) Hong Kong refugees who will have a very well founded fear of persecution - and also vett them for PRC Govt plants/sleepers.
Beijing cannot afford an ongoing humiliation (esp given Uighurs) even if the PLA kills the HKG golden goose & pushes Taiwan to independence. Moreover. HKG protests will now have significant PLA agents provocateur & they will likely throw enough false flags to justify a crackdown
Ignore alleged footage and imagery of PLA tanks/afvs etc massing in Shenzhen etc. The PRC have enough kit & personnel in HKG to bring down the hammer if necessary and an extensive information operation to shape perceptions. This said, the HKG people have grit, fortitude & faith.
You should assume, given how often PRC state news outlets are slamming the protests as "terrorists" and criminals, that the more violent protesters are PRC agents provocateur trying to turn Beijing's denunciations into realities that demand the hammer fall.
You can assume some of the people beating this alleged agent provocateur are also agents of the state proving their bona fides to the protesters and trying to win the protest leaders' confidence. Identities will be learned & protesters/families threatened
It is also smart (for now) of the protesters to force confrontations in confined spaces of value to the Govt & which cannot be made, easily, into battlefields...but the regime will soon reach a red line as the summer holidays end.
I doubt, strongly, Beijing cares what the US & others think. The CCP needs to restore order & teach its indulged 'south Shenzhen' ingrates a lesson, if only as mainlanders will resent increasingly that privileged HKGers are creating disorder. Only issue is response re Taiwan
Also...shortly after the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacres, the much-hallowed Bush41 administration sent its leading diplomats into Beijing to meet Deng & others and assure them that nothing would change from the US perspective.
nytimes.com/1989/12/19/wor…
nytimes.com/1989/12/19/wor…
Strongly recommend reading this whenever pondering the CCP’s behaviour - Mao is the greatest mass murderer in history & his dictum that ‘power flows only from the barrel of a gun’ guides his successors 
Would add, need it be added, that the CCP and Xi wish to avoid the fate of Gorbachev from 1989-1991, whereby concessions to protesters and dissidents saw not just the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact but of the Soviet Union itself.
China's historic state is regional warlords or a strong central government. There is no "cooperative federalism" model in Chinese history.
Suspect, strongly, that the CCP would prefer Xi bring down the hammer in HKG soon and risk Taiwan resisting all unification overtures.
Suspect, strongly, that the CCP would prefer Xi bring down the hammer in HKG soon and risk Taiwan resisting all unification overtures.
PLA ostentatiously parking this amount of kit in Shenzhen serves as a warning for HKG protesters. Suspect the many PRC agents provocateur in crowds start to ramp up faux violence so as to "demand" a PLA response. The PLA is much more Soviet than Sun Tzu
apnews.com/3fe7654b146b4f…
apnews.com/3fe7654b146b4f…
Protest in support of Hong Kong in Sydney last night #HongKongProtests
Protest in support of the Communist Regime in Sydney last night #HongKongProtests
Those protesting China's communist regime in Sydney last night were all wearing masks and balaclavas as protesters feared being identified and their families in China being targeted by the Regime #HongKongProtests
Australia and other Western nations really need to plan for a surge in Hong Kong residents (both there and studying/working here) who will require asylum
sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/…
sbs.com.au/news/the-feed/…
Mistake to think Beijing needs another 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre. The Leninist PRC's state security apparatus has (with Big Tech's help) pioneered Orwellian technologies to enable Beijing to target dissidents+'un-person' them/families.....without any need for tanks & bullets
Ping @thespybrief 👆
