Thread by @GrayConnolly

I wrote this in @Meanjin in Autumn 2016 on Australian conservatism and its political vehicles and would draw attention to (A) the Australian Right's national dominance since 1901 + (B) Brian Loughnane's observations as pertinent to Scott Morrison's win
meanjin.com.au/essays/conserv…

Australia's national & *federal* elections are decided in a Westminster system of 151 local House seats across an island continent the size of the EU. We have a national election in which local candidates & local communities matter. There was always that 'Quiet Australian' vote.

One aspect of the 2019 election is that Australia is developing, even with compulsory voting, regional & demographic tribalism of other Western countries. The Coalition did best in working, middle class & rural seats.
Labor gained only in more educated & perhaps affluent seats.

Also, one aspect of the 2017 SSM plebiscite & social 'progressivism' since, esp Israel Folau case, is that the Right of Australian politics has been campaigning to win ethnic and immigrant communities with traditional values. People will vote to defend their values. 'Caveat Woke'

Two more 2019 election trends re conservative dominance:

1/ Coalition winning more workers vs Labor gains some educated/affluent

2/ Coalition making inroads into ethnic/immigrant communities with trad social values.

Coalition can do the electoral maths in a Westminster system

The @australian created this House electoral map & the 2019 election's conservative Coalition victory (Liberal blue & National green) over Labor (red) is in stark relief. You simply cannot win a national election for 151 House seats in just inner Sydney & Melbourne.

Will just add for the benefit of those doubting the magnitude of Saturday's election: the conservative Coalition's victory (the Liberal blue & National green) over Labor (the red) has come after Labor has already been in *Opposition* for 6 years.

Will add, also, again, that Labor has won precisely *1* national majority in the past quarter of a century-and that was with a churchgoing Queenslander who consciously looked like conservative John Howard and gave press conferences outside of his church...oh & the electoral map👇

"The Case for Constitutional Federalism"

strategycounsel.blogspot.com/2018/11/consti…

The Coalition have won a great small-c conservative victory across Australia and yet one senses our spivvish liberal class, who dominate our media & are electorally toxic, will urge the Coalition to expend precious political capital refighting Work Choices & other Whig causes.

What @CroweDM gets to, eventually, almost reluctantly, is the conservative Coalition won among workers who have no economic reason to reject Labor. Australia is much more socially conservative than our media like. Quiet Australians do not shout - they vote
smh.com.au/federal-electi…

See here this piece & its maps-further to my basic argument as to 2019 being about a 'revolt of the Normals'. Also important the conservative Coalition realises it needs to always expand the map even if it means losing some votes in Nth Sydney or Higgins.
news.theceomagazine.com/news/maps-may-…

One endemic problem highlighted by the 2019 election and #Insiders and #Speers today is that Australia desperately needs more political media in the regions and much *much* less based in Canberra. Today was a media class in denial about what the whole country has said. Again.